美联储决议全文复盘：紧缩的终点线

华尔街见闻2022-09-22

终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体现联储持续紧缩的决心。虽然点阵图只是当期的预期而不代表未来的政策，但短期依旧打消了市场对联储快速转向宽松的念头。Mikko的笔记终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体现联储持续紧缩的决心。虽然点阵图只是当期的预期而不代表未来的政策，但短期依旧打消了市场对联储快速转向宽松的念头。通胀仍然是第一要务，鲍威尔发布会问答时直接表态目前依然维持自己在杰克逊霍尔时的立场。在...

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Comments

Fattkhong
2022-09-22
Fattkhong
[惊讶]
- Fattkhong:
  [惊讶]
Fattkhong
2022-09-22
Fattkhong
[惊讶]
hhyw
2022-09-22
hhyw
好
康康的
2022-09-22
康康的
好
- 康康的:
  哦
跟着队长一起走
2022-09-22
跟着队长一起走
穩物價是要搞供需平衡！降低需求不如增加供應啊！
- hhyw:
  好
跟着队长一起走
2022-09-22
跟着队长一起走
物價飛漲，股市再不漲就沒錢了！沒錢了物價會跌嗎？不會！跌了就掙不到錢了，掙不到錢就沒錢還貸款！！這可能刺激國內生產更多廉價商品，因爲關稅還是沒有放開！！
- chewks:
  Ok
- Alfano:
  K
- Edmond123:
  👍
- Babymatrix:
  hi
- chang168:
  up

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Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.最近的经济指标表明支出和生产温和增长。近几个月来，就业增长强劲，失业率一直保持在低位。通货膨胀率仍然居高不下，反映出与疫情有关的供需失衡、粮食和能源价格上涨以及更广泛的价格压力。Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.俄乌冲突正在造成巨大的人类和经济困难。战争和相关事件正在给通货膨胀带来额外的上行压力，并给全球经济活动带来了压力。委员会高度重视通货膨胀风险。The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.委员会寻求在长期实现充分就业和2%的通货膨胀率。为了支持这些目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间范围提高到3%至3.25%（75个基点），并预计将继续提高利率区间。此外，委员会将继续减少其持有的国债、机构债务和MBS，如5月份发布的《缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划》所述。委员会坚定地致力于将通胀率恢复到2%的目标。In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测新进信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策的立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括公共卫生、劳动力市场状况、通胀压力和通胀预期以及金融和国际发展的读数。经济预测失业预测有极大不确定性与上调风险……点阵图发布会Q&AQ1. 美联储将何时减缓加息，并在决定停止加息时会考虑哪些因素？我不会正面回答你的问题。（车轱辘话）首先我要强调美联储的宗旨自Jackson Hole会议以来没有变化。美联储会保持紧缩直至通胀消弭。具体来说，为了将通胀降至2%以下，我们需要1）经济增长低于趋势，2）劳动力市场供需平衡。前者我们已经达到，而后者我们仍需努力。因此我们需要将联邦基金利率提升至紧缩的水平。（关于停止加息的因素）首先我们会跟踪经济增长是否在趋势之下，其次劳动力供给更加平衡，最后有切实证据表明通胀降低至2%。关于降息，我们只有在通胀切实降低至2%后才会考虑。Q2.美联储如何考虑（货币政策）对于通胀效果的时滞性？货币政策的确有时滞性。我认为货币政策对金融状况的传导十分迅速，有时金融状况还会领先货币政策的公布。金融状况会很快开始影响实体经济，通常在一到两个月之内。但是金融状况对通胀的传导可能需要一定时间。我们会注意这一点，这也是为什么在开场时我提到：“随着货币立场继续收紧，我们会考虑整体货币立场对经济与通胀的影响，并考虑减缓加息。”Follow up：美联储会一直线性加息，还是会停止加息并保持一段时间，以反思货币政策对经济的影响？很难说美联储之后的加息路径如何。（车轱辘话）我们的宗旨是保持紧缩直至通胀消弭。从SEP中你可以读到的是FOMC理事们在这个时间节点认为合适的利率水平，而这会随时间变化而变化。我们有可能会维持利率在某一水平，但我们目前还没有达到该水平。我认为我们目前刚刚达到能称之紧缩水平的下沿。FOMC与我的观点都是我们还需要继续（加息）。Q3.SEP中明年的失业率达到了4.4%。历史上来说这一水平的失业率都会导致经济衰退。是否可以把这一预测理解为美联储不可能达成软着陆。货币政策是否有必要如此紧缩？SEP中，美联储预测失业率会有适中（moderate）的增长。这主要是目前的经济状况与过去迥异。首先岗位空缺相较求职者数量很高，因此与过去不同，岗位空缺的下降可以与失业率小幅上升并存。其次长期通胀预期稳定。这意味着拉低通胀更加轻松。最后，通胀部分是由于供给侧冲击，比如疫情、经济解封以及俄乌战争。而目前有证据表明供给冲击有缓解的迹象：比如商品价格开始下降。我们一直认为恢复价格稳定的同时达成软着陆非常具有挑战性。我们不知道加息是否会导致经济衰退，受多种因素影响。如果货币政策要紧缩更久（more restrictive for longer），软着陆的可能也会降低。但是我们的宗旨是降低通胀。Follow up：职位空缺率是否仍是考虑劳动力市场的重要指标是的。目前职位空缺率仍是2：1，是衡量劳动力市场松紧度非常好的指标（very good ways）。在其他经济周期中失业率一般被认为是最好的劳动力市场指标。两者在衡量劳动力市场方面一直具有价值（have value）Q4.如何决定终端利率，会考虑哪些因素。如果希望利率高于通胀，目前通胀是多少？我认为美联储需要将实际政策利率提升到正值，从而对通胀产生有意义的拉低压力。我们会观察广义金融状况，比如利率，信用利差，金融信用指数等等。我们今天的会议，以及之前的会议都讨论过，需要将整个利率曲线的所有实际利率都提升至正值。SEP所预测的即是如此。*Q5.您曾说美联储的决策是一会一决策（meeting by meeting）。目前看起来加息路径是75 50 25。那么在下一场会议中美联储会加息75bp嘛？FOMC的确在每场会议做一个决策，本次美联储的决策即加息75bp。SEP显示的加息路径中值的确是年底前再加息125bp，但同样一群理事认为再加息100bp也是可能的。（至于下面是否加息75bp），我们会在下一场会议中决定。我只能说美联储会达到紧缩水平，并以很快的速率达成。Follow up：为什么美联储不顾衰退风险，坚持继续加息（frontload），是由于CPI数据显示通胀问题的解决进度堪忧（lack of progress），还是因为劳动力市场仍然紧张？美联储的预期是由于供给的缓和，通胀会下降。但是虽然供给端有所缓解，但通胀没有下降。核心PCE显示按3个月，6个月以及12个月的年化率，通胀率分别为4.8%，4.5%与4.8%。这是对通胀很好的总结，也是我们不希望看见的通胀情况。这告诉我们需要继续加息，直到政策利率达到我们认为合适的水平。*Q6.我们如何理解在SEP中通胀直到2025仍未返回2%，但点阵图显示2024年就会开始降息。这是否意味着美联储可以容忍高于2%的通胀率？SEP预测的2025年核心通胀为2.1%，总体通胀为2.0%，与通胀目标相差无几，但确实高于2%。Follow up：为什么这次会议没有加息100bp？在上次与这次新闻发布会中，我都说过美联储的决策将基于总体的数据。在7月通胀的数据出乎意料地低，而8月的通胀数据则出乎意料地高。我们不希望对单个数据点做过激反应。我们之前讲过核心利率一直高于4.5%（Q5 Follow up）我们不需要看更多数据就知道通胀已经太高了。而FOMC将提升政策利率至紧缩水平并维持，直至我们确信通胀已经消弭。Q7.你曾提到可能会出售MBS。当前房地产市场降温、按揭贷款利率上行的情况是否会影响美联储在MBS方面缩表的速率？我们的原话是缩表进入后期后会考虑这一选项，但是目前我们不会考虑。Q8.如何看待全球紧缩会导致全球经济衰退的问题。在这方面是否会有国际合作？我与FOMC几位同事刚刚从Basel关于全球央行的会议回来。我们（各地央行）都有各自的本土目标需要完成，但同时都保持着密切的联系。我们做的预测与决策会尽量将国际经济纳入考量范围，但我们做的一定不够完美。关于国际合作，由于各地有不同的利率水平，情况不同，合作无从谈起。我们没有合作，更多是信息共享与交流。Q9.为什么经济这么强劲，这是否意味着美联储需要设定更高的终端利率？是的，劳动力市场非常强劲，但在利率敏感的行业，如房地产市场，我们可以看到加息发挥的作用：经济活动减少，房价下行。加息对于利率敏感的消费，进出口（通过汇率传导）都有所作用。但是同样，经济十分强劲，人们有来自新冠积累以及政府转移支付的储蓄，政府现金很多。我们认为的经济增长趋势在1.8%左右，而实际经济的确低于趋势。当然有可能经济（比数据显示的）更加强劲，这是好事，意味着经济不会遭受更严重的衰退。但是我们关注的只有将通胀拉低至低于2%。Q10.衰退是否更有可能发生了。因此导致的劳动力市场工作流失是否值得？我不知道衰退的可能性几何。非常可能的是经济增长在一段时间内会在趋势之下，而我们现在也看到了。美联储预期的今年经济增长为0.2%，是很低的水平，而明年预期的增长为1.2%，也显著低于趋势。但是这是我们需要的。人们正因为通胀而遭受苦难。如果我们想要一个更强劲的劳动力市场，必须先拉低通胀。我也希望有更加轻松的方式，但没有。所以美联储需要做的是提升利率至紧缩水平。我们也还没有完全否定以较少的失业率上升换取通胀的下降的可能性。Follow up：由于数据后视，而货币政策也有时滞，美联储如何知道紧缩是否过激？很难回答。Q11.如何向公众解释为什么劳动力市场必须遭受苦难（suffer the pain）？（车轱辘话）见前几次FOMC新闻发布会。Q12.美国人民需要经历多长时间的经济苦难？取决于通胀什么时候下降。重申为什么要抗击通胀。Follow up：有哪些经济上的苦难，比如工作流失，信用卡利率上升。包含所有这些，更高的利率，经济增长减缓，劳动力市场松弛都会带来经济上的苦难，但都不及通胀久居不下所带来的苦难。Q13.成屋销售已经第7个月连续下降，按揭贷款利率也达到了自2008年以来的高点。然而本月贷款需求增加，而房地产价格仍然久居不下。在6月份的新闻发布会中您提到要重启（reset）房地产市场，是否可以详细描述“重启”的含义，以及美联储相关的措施。重启并不是指一套明确的数据，只是说美国房地产市场经历了一段非常火热的时期。那时一手房购房者的购买价常常比开始的出价高10%，供需严重失衡，价格上涨过快。目前房屋价格上涨的减缓会帮助房屋价格达到一个与租金等其他房地产基本面更加相符的水平。长期来说，我们希望供需能够平衡——房屋价格可以以合理的速率上升，人们也可以再次买得起房。因此我认为我们需要一个“调整”（correction）来达到这一状态。长期来说房地产市场也有一些问题，比如现在很难找到离城市近的土地，房产商也更难买到土地、建房材料以及工人。但从商业周期的角度，这种困难会帮助房地产市场达到一个更好的状态。Follow 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