The Hong Kong stock market spent most of last week pricing in the possibility of a US Federal Reserve rate hike, with the Hang Seng Index declining for nearly the entire week. The crucial inflation data has now been released: US August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, significantly above the previous 0.1%, while the year-over-year figure came in at 3.4%, meeting expectations and flat from the prior month. Core CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding the market forecast of 0.2%. Based on this data, conditions do appear ripe for another rate increase.
This week's biggest market suspense centers on the Fed's rate decision, expected at 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17. Some predict a 25-basis-point hike. Friday's rebound in US stocks has sparked debate—some view it as a "bad news priced in" rally, others think it will be the only hike this year, but few are dismissing the possibility of a move entirely. Markets will likely trade based on scenario analysis across these possibilities. A key swing factor remains oil prices: Iran is set to discuss a Hormuz agreement with Gulf nations at a meeting in Oman on September 14. Iranian President Pezeshkian has stated that if the US lifts its blockade, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. If oil prices decline, triggering a pullback in US Treasury yields, equity market pressure would ease considerably, potentially giving the Fed room to hold off on hiking.
Concerns about a slowdown in AI development have also emerged. Reports indicate that the co-founder and CEO of Anthropic has called for a deliberate deceleration in advancing AI model capabilities. However, "slowing the pace" doesn't mean halting model training or technological progress—rather, it's about ensuring companies have sufficient time for alignment and safety assurance. With competition intensifying, those who pause risk falling behind. Meanwhile, China's tech sector continues to accelerate. The State Council has called for further improvements to computing infrastructure, enhanced monitoring and dispatch of computing resources, and stronger backbone fiber-optic network construction. CCTV reports that over the next five years, more than 26 trillion yuan is expected to be invested in six major infrastructure networks, and that demand for tokens in China is exploding, with consumption projected to reach 1 billion billion by 2026. Investors should watch whether fiber-optic, computing power, and token-related themes gain traction. At the Shenzhen Optoelectronics Expo, feedback indicates orders are booked into next year, with 1.6T taking center stage as the leading optical module technology. Optical modules and PCB are widely regarded as the two hottest sectors with the highest AI elasticity.
On the consumption front,热门中秋火车票开售即秒光, with bookings for hotels in lesser-known "treasure towns" surging over 1000%. With the holiday still weeks away, consumer spending typically performs better when aligned with overall market sentiment.
This Week's Stock Pick: CATL (03750)
Morgan Stanley has responded to recent market concerns triggered by a Chinese EV maker announcing plans to bring in non-CATL battery suppliers. The investment bank notes that historical precedent shows carmakers' attempts to "de-CATL" have repeatedly failed—citing BYD's DM-i platform disruption, XPeng's supplier switches, and Volkswagen's experience despite being the largest shareholder of Gotion High-Tech, CATL's share in its models has paradoxically continued to rise. All these cases validate that the opportunity cost of moving away from the industry leader is extremely high. Morgan Stanley believes CATL, with its continuous product innovation and performance improvements, will maintain and expand its market share. The bank reiterates its "Overweight" rating on both A-shares (300750.SZ) and H-shares (03750), with an A-share target price of RMB 595, implying approximately 77% upside from the then-closing price of RMB 335.49. Additionally, announcements from Friday show CATL has begun share buybacks (following the earlier disclosure of a RMB 40 billion buyback plan). Even assuming RMB 100 billion in profit this year, the stock has fallen to roughly 15-16 times valuation, approaching historically low levels. Future growth may not be as pessimistic as the market fears, and the buyback provides downside support.
Industry Observations
On September 13, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a piece urging the industry to voluntarily slow the pace of AI capability advancement. Two core motivations drive this call. First, since summer, AI has exhibited "recursive self-improvement" (RSI) characteristics, with models accelerating the iteration of their own capabilities and noticeably speeding up industry progress. Second, in the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident, autonomous agents collaboratively launched unauthorized cyberattacks and attempted to crack evaluation systems, raising his concern that within 6-12 months, similar clusters could potentially gain the ability to take over the internet. To address this, he proposed a three-step approach: embedded third-party evaluators (which Anthropic has already committed to), coordinated safety standards, and global coordination, including supply chain controls. CITIC Securities believes Amodei's stance indirectly confirms that RSI has become the core engine driving current model capability improvements. The increasing involvement of models in their own R&D processes is significantly shortening iteration cycles. The brokerage is optimistic about breakthrough capability leaps within the next six to twelve months, with AI4S (AI + scientific discovery) expected to benefit concurrently, accelerating adoption in fields such as drug development and materials science, which would further expand demand for AI infrastructure and applications. However, attention must be paid to: first, alignment and safety testing still lag behind capability improvements—regulatory intervention and third-party evaluations could disrupt individual companies' training and release schedules; second, geopolitical factors in global AI governance and supply chains remain uncertain and could impact industry development pace, warranting continuous monitoring. CITIC Securities' team concludes that the underlying driver of AI capability improvement (RSI) is currently in a period of dividend release, and the short-term industry growth logic remains intact. They favor leading AI companies with advanced model capabilities and robust safety governance systems to continue gaining market share and pricing power, while also noting potential disruptions from regulatory coordination and geopolitical factors.
Market Data Overview
Data from HKEX shows that open interest in Hang Seng Index futures (September contract) totals 124,065 contracts, with net open interest at 38,899 contracts. The settlement date for Hang Seng Index futures is September 29, 2026. With the Hang Seng Index at 24,806 points, the bull certificate dense zone is near the central axis, while the bear certificate dense zone above is skewed away. There is short-selling pressure in the Hong Kong market. Wall Street analysts generally expect 1-2 rate hikes rather than a new full-fledged tightening cycle. US stock movements will continue to influence Hong Kong's direction, and the Hang Seng Index is expected to be bearish this week.
Editor's Final Thoughts
US equity tech assets have rebounded, creating some spillover effect on the Chinese market, but the risk of a Fed rate hike must still be guarded against. From an industry perspective, since OpenAI released Astra, industry confidence in AI has genuinely strengthened. However, both Anthropic and OpenAI are currently engaged in anti-distillation efforts. Previously, the market's annualized revenue expectations for domestic models were somewhat inflated. Additionally, domestic chips have underperformed market expectations, and next year's shortages could become more severe. The industry chain faces a period of near-term ambiguity, so investors should approach domestic model companies with caution. For more Hong Kong stock highlights, download the Zhitong Finance app. For more Hong Kong and overseas wealth management information, visit www.zhitongcaijing.com (search for "Zhitong Finance"). To join the Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Investment Group, add the Zhitong customer service WeChat (ztcjkf).
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