On January 12, as digital assets gain an increasingly prominent position in the global financial landscape, ZFX Shanhai Securities has been closely monitoring a long-term valuation report recently released by asset management giant VanEck. The report indicates that in a base-case scenario, if Bitcoin's potential as a global settlement tool and reserve asset is fully realized, its value could reach $2.9 million by 2050. ZFX Shanhai Securities believes this ambitious valuation is not merely a simple price prediction but a deep extrapolation of Bitcoin's "digital gold" attributes against the backdrop of a transforming global monetary system, reflecting the potential for a structural leap in crypto assets over the next quarter-century. According to a model proposed by VanEck's Head of Research, Matthew Sigel, Bitcoin's annualized return over the next 25 years is projected to be around 15%. ZFX Shanhai Securities stated that this valuation logic completely departs from traditional equity asset evaluation frameworks, instead adopting a "penetration rate model" for measurement. Specifically, the model assumes that Bitcoin will account for 5% to 10% of global international trade settlement volume in the future. Concurrently, as global investors prudently consider sovereign currency credit risks, various economies and central banks may gradually allocate a small portion of their reserve assets to Bitcoin. Although major economies have not yet incorporated it into official reserves, ZFX Shanhai Securities believes the trend of shifting from the periphery to the core is in its nascent stages, with a gradually transparent regulatory environment acting as a key catalyst. In terms of volatility control and risk management, relevant data suggests Bitcoin's long-term annualized volatility may remain between 40% and 70%, with performance characteristics more akin to frontier markets. ZFX Shanhai Securities indicated that Bitcoin's price movements show a strong positive correlation with the growth of global liquidity (M2), while its correlation with the US Dollar Index is steadily weakening, signaling that its driving factors are increasingly aligning with global macro liquidity. From a practical asset allocation perspective, ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that historically, adding a 1% to 3% Bitcoin position to a diversified portfolio has effectively enhanced risk-adjusted returns. Synthesizing global macro trends and financial technology evolution, ZFX Shanhai Securities stated that although the path to $2.9 million is accompanied by multiple challenges related to operational infrastructure and international political acceptance, its importance as a structural asset can no longer be ignored. ZFX Shanhai Securities advises investors to focus on its strategic value in hedging against inflation and achieving currency diversification.
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