E Fund Gold Miners ETF (HKEX: 02824) has surged more than 5%. At the time of writing, the ETF is up 5.26% to HK$9.31, with a trading turnover of HK$4.06 million.
According to research, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting indicate that while all officials unanimously agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, internal disagreements over the next policy steps have significantly widened. A small number of officials believed the conditions for a rate hike were already in place at the June meeting, but ultimately supported holding steady due to considerations for financial market stability and awaiting more economic data. This shows that voices advocating for further policy tightening have re-emerged within the Fed.
Analysis suggests that, in the long term, the later stages of the U.S. economic cycle face multiple constraints including high interest rates, credit contraction, and slowing growth. Regardless of whether the Fed cuts rates due to an economic slowdown or is forced to maintain higher rates for longer due to persistent inflation, gold is seen as having strong long-term allocation value. The former scenario would benefit from a decline in real interest rates, while the latter would strengthen demand for gold as a safe-haven and hedge against credit risk. Overall, the medium to long-term outlook for gold remains favorable, with its price center expected to continue rising amid the reshaping of the global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape.
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