Apple Futures Outlook
Key Market News and Data
In the futures market, the closing price for the Apple 2610 contract yesterday was 7,672 yuan per tonne, representing an increase of 12 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. In the spot market, the price for premium grade 80# late Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 3.25 yuan per jin, unchanged from the prior day. The spot basis versus the AP10 contract was -1172, a decrease of 12 points. In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the price for grade 70# and above semi-premium late Fuji apples was 3.75 yuan per jin, also unchanged, with the spot basis at -172, down 12 points.
Recent Market Information
Recent market information indicates that overall movement of inventory apples from production areas is moderate, with trading activity showing a slight decline. In the northwest region, traders are shipping their own stock to meet demand from their established channels, with general trading activity for transferred goods. In Shandong production areas, shipments of cost-effective, striped red varieties remain fair, with e-commerce and export channels making small purchases. Lower-priced goods from growers are generally sold at market prices, while high-quality fruit is scarce and holders are firm on their asking prices. In Qixia, prices for 80# striped red grade 1-2 range from 2.5 to 4.0 yuan per jin, with 80# standard goods around 1.5 to 2.0 yuan per jin. In Luochuan, Shaanxi, growers' standard goods are priced between 2.3 and 2.8 yuan per jin, while traders' semi-premium outbound prices range from 3.5 to 4.2 yuan per jin. In Gansu's Jingning area, semi-premium goods are priced from 4.5 to 7.0 yuan per jin.
Market Analysis
The main apple futures contract closed higher after a volatile session yesterday, continuing its low-level consolidation pattern. In production areas, overall movement of inventory fruit is moderate, with trading activity slightly cooling. In Shandong, shipments of cost-effective goods remain fair, supported by small e-commerce and export purchases. Standard goods are selling at market prices, while high-quality fruit is scarce and firm. In northwest production areas, traders are shipping goods according to demand, with trading for transferred goods remaining subdued. The bagging process for the new season is now complete, and subsequent focus will be on weather conditions during the growing period. In consumption areas, demand continues to be diverted by seasonal fresh fruits, leading to slow terminal sales and reduced willingness among traders to replenish stock. Current inventory is mostly being sold at market prices, with significant differentiation by quality grade. Amid supply-demand dynamics, the market is expected to maintain a low-level consolidation pattern in the near term.
Strategy
Neutral.
Risks
Insufficient terminal consumption recovery, price pressure from low-cost substitute fruits, and expectations of increased new-season production.
Jujube Futures Outlook
Key Market News and Data
In the futures market, the closing price for the Jujube 2609 contract yesterday was 8,595 yuan per tonne, an increase of 150 yuan or 1.78% from the previous day. In the spot market, the price for premium grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 7.80 yuan per kilogram, unchanged, with the spot basis versus the CJ09 contract at -795, a decrease of 150 points.
Recent Market Information
Recent market information indicates that growth conditions in the main Xinjiang production region are currently satisfactory. A continuous high-temperature warning is in effect for the main production areas over the next week, coinciding with the physiological fruit drop period for jujube trees. Market participants are closely monitoring flowering, fruit setting, and weather conditions. Over the weekend, a small number of trucks arrived at the parking area of the Cui'erzhuang market in Hebei. Market prices remained stable, with traders making purchases based on demand, resulting in moderate trading volume. At the Ruyifang market in Guangdong, three truckloads arrived, and market prices held steady, with downstream buyers procuring goods according to their needs.
Market Analysis
The main jujube futures contract closed higher yesterday, rebounding from lower levels, with increased positions and trading volume during the session. In production areas, growth conditions for jujube trees in the main Xinjiang region are stable. The trees are currently in the critical physiological fruit drop period. With persistent high temperatures forecast for the coming week, close attention is required on fruit setting performance and weather-related disruptions. In consumption areas, arrival volumes at the Hebei and Guangdong markets were low. Spot prices remained stable. During the traditional off-season, traders are replenishing stock based on demand, with overall trading activity being moderate. Year-on-year inventory for the old season remains high, and the destocking pace is slow, keeping the supply-demand fundamentals under pressure. However, the high-temperature weather disruption is providing short-term sentiment support. The near-term market is expected to maintain a consolidative pattern.
Strategy
Neutral.
Risks
Insufficient downstream restocking demand, delayed destocking of high inventories, and limited support from production area weather conditions.
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