The three major A-share indices collectively strengthened today.
By the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index had risen by 1.61% and 3.79% respectively.
The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index surged by 5.30% and 5.12% respectively.
The total market turnover was 3.05 trillion yuan, a decrease of 185.4 billion yuan from last Friday.
The number of advancing stocks exceeded 3,900, with the median stock price change showing a gain of 1.25%.
The average stock price index climbed by 3.86%.
Following last Friday's gap-up surge, the Shanghai Composite Index posted another significant rise today, exceeding market expectations.
One stimulating factor was the memorandum of understanding on a ceasefire reached between Iran and the United States.
In terms of index performance, all broad-based indices rose, with the exception of the micro-cap stock index.
Last week, it was noted that mysterious funds were purchasing broad-based ETFs.
Today, the market trend finally stabilized.
Specifically, the strength in the SSE 50 Index, combined with strong performances from the securities, insurance, and non-ferrous metals sectors, helped set the stage for the broader market advance.
After this foundation was laid, securities and insurance stocks retreated significantly, while technology stocks surged once again.
Having completed their task of boosting market confidence, the non-banking financial sector stepped back, making way for sector-specific and individual stock movements.
From November to December last year, the Shanghai Composite Index adjusted for 23 trading days before rebounding for 20 days.
In March this year, the index adjusted for 15 days before rebounding for 35 days.
The current market adjustment lasted 18 trading days.
Based on this pattern, a rebound period roughly equivalent to the adjustment phase can be expected.
These timeframes are merely estimates and must be assessed step-by-step based on actual developments.
However, it can at least be anticipated that the rebound is far from over, as only 6 trading days of gains have occurred so far.
Nevertheless, expectations for the magnitude of the rebound should remain modest for now.
Therefore, the focus should be on sector and individual stock selection rather than the overall index.
In the short term, the movements of both the Shanghai Composite Index and the main theme of AI hardware today bear some resemblance to the situation on April 8th.
On the macroeconomic front, following the Iran-US ceasefire memorandum, Morgan Stanley indicated that the Iran agreement might lead bond markets to unwind bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes.
This is viewed as favorable for the continuation of the market rebound.
It has been pointed out that the year's second significant buying opportunity has arrived.
The market adjustment driven by recent liquidity concerns is largely over, signaled by the impending Iran-US agreement.
Another confirming signal would be the sentiment realization following a potential high-level diplomatic visit.
If similar past events are used as a reference for the duration and depth of market pullbacks, the all-share index has essentially completed its correction.
The outlook for the third quarter is relatively optimistic.
Although short-term disturbances like large IPOs and key monetary policy meetings persist, asset prices are first repairing the broad-based decline caused by overly tight liquidity expectations.
Furthermore, the appearance of net inflows into major broad-based index ETFs can be seen as the beginning of a confirmed improvement in the赚钱效应 of individual stocks.
Therefore, any subsequent market adjustments would present good opportunities for positioning.
Focus on Sector Performance
In the sector landscape, AI hardware staged a comeback.
Components, communication equipment, building materials (where the top four stocks by market cap in the sector are all electronic fabric concept stocks), and semiconductors—the upstream of AI hardware—ranked among the top four gainers by sector.
Within the AI hardware segment, the upstream PCB sector saw a surge of limit-up gains.
Sub-sectors like CCL, electronic fabric, resin, and copper foil all posted substantial rises.
Most stocks in the midstream of optical communication closed with medium to large positive gains, while many upstream material stocks hit their daily limit-up.
For optical communication and PCB, the focus has consistently been on the upstream materials.
This perspective is supported by historical precedent.
During the 2019-2021 new energy rally, upstream segments like lithium battery electrolyte, separators, and lithium mines produced numerous high-performing stocks.
The current situation is merely a reenactment of that historical experience.
Moreover, for PCB upstream, not only are prices continuously rising with further increases expected, but the value contribution of PCBs in new AI infrastructure has also significantly increased, catalyzing an exceptionally strong performance.
Analysis indicates that the global AI PCB industry chain is currently experiencing a sustained and accelerating uptrend in景气度.
Monthly revenue data from PCB-related manufacturers in Taiwan has become a core high-frequency indicator for observing industry changes.
Revenue growth rates for Taiwanese board manufacturers, copper clad laminate producers, and drill bit companies across the entire产业链 have been increasing month-over-month from February to May 2026, showing a clear synchronized upward trend.
The simultaneous acceleration across the PCB supply chain, with upstream materials and consumables exhibiting a steeper景气 slope than midstream board makers, even against a high base,充分说明 the AI-driven PCB industry is in a持续扩张的上行周期, with downstream computing power hardware demand demonstrating strong persistence.
On the news front, as of 4 PM today, US-listed memory and optical communication concept stocks were collectively higher in pre-market trading.
Similar to the PCB logic is the MLCC industry chain, where the value contribution of MLCCs in new infrastructure has also seen a substantial increase.
Despite significant industry-wide price hikes already, capacity constraints suggest there is still a high expectation for further price increases.
Today, the MLCC industry chain surged sharply, with the sector index rising by 10.31% and individual stocks experiencing a wave of limit-up gains.
Regarding MLCCs, it was noted that market chatter-induced changes in筹码 are essentially aimed at raising the overall cost basis for investors.
In the early stages of an expansion cycle, one should not be overly concerned with short-term volatility but maintain a longer-term perspective.
When看好 the medium to long-term potential but worried about short-term movements, it is often best to step away temporarily.
Upon returning, one often finds that prices have not only recovered but reached new highs.
Regarding discussions on whether MLCC could become the next memory sector, analysis结合 insights from industry拆解 and the latest动向 from Japanese manufacturers suggests several points.
New infrastructure is driving both volume and price increases for high-end MLCCs, leading major players to accelerate capacity expansion.
Expansion in high-end production lines is squeezing capacity for low-end通用品, potentially triggering a涨价潮 similar to the HBM situation impacting DRAM.
The MLCC格局 resembles an HBM-like duopoly, but lower capital barriers pose a risk.
Based on consensus estimates, the sector currently trades at a median 2026 forward P/E of 43.3x, higher than the 8.7x for the memory sector.
Future attention should be on ASP trends and the impact of price hikes on profitability.
In the semiconductor sector, the South Korean government recently launched a "Super Innovation Economy Project," planning to invest 500 billion won in state funds to tackle next-generation power semiconductor technology.
Including private matching funds, the total R&D project规模 is预计 to reach 750 billion won.
Reports indicate South Korea is positioning power semiconductors as a core strategic industry comparable to memory chips.
Research points out that power semiconductors are开启 a new AI-driven cycle.
Reviewing the股价及业绩 cycles of overseas leaders, power semiconductor stocks exhibit明显的周期属性.
The previous cycle driven by automotive chip shortages and new energy lasted about three years (uptrend from 2020-2023).
Since 2026, AI data center power demand has begun to emerge as a new pricing主线.
In 2023, the average gross margin for three major companies reached 46.5%, with an average net margin of 23.2%.
Recent long-term guidance from these companies exceeds those highs, suggesting AI could drive a new power semiconductor cycle surpassing the previous one.
On the news front, a major wafer manufacturer announced a price increase of 10%-15% across its power chip product line, effective June 15th.
Regarding Securities and Insurance Sectors
As mentioned earlier, the securities and insurance sectors have largely fulfilled their role in boosting market信心.
They are likely to enter a phase of consolidation moving forward.
After a period of range-bound trading, their future direction will become clearer.
There is hope that they could initiate another wave of strength later to further提振全市场的信心.
It is important to note that the performance of brokerage stocks is more closely tied to expectations for the overall A-share market than to the sector's own fundamentals.
This is a personal observation.
The non-ferrous metals sector continued its strong advance today.
Among the品种, molybdenum and tungsten showed particular strength.
The logic for molybdenum stocks relates to product iteration attempts involving substitution, while the logic for tungsten involves strong demand from PCB上游 for materials like carbide tools and drill bits.
Both molybdenum and tungsten are高度相关 to AI infrastructure build-out.
Final Summary
In summary, market sentiment underwent a comprehensive repair today.
The broader market is expected to experience a震荡式反弹 going forward, but expectations for the magnitude should remain restrained.
In terms of operations, the focus should be on sectors and individual stocks rather than the指数.
Regarding sectors, continued attention is warranted on the optical communication, PCB, and MLCC industry chains.
For the first two, the focus should be on upstream players, core stocks, and leading companies.
As筹码 in some branches or individual stocks within the AI hardware theme have shown signs of loosening recently, attention to timing and节奏 is necessary.
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