Gold's latest market trend analysis: On January 15th, the gold market outlook: During the European session on Thursday (January 15th), spot gold experienced a volatile decline with an intraday drop of approximately 0.65%. This movement followed reports indicating a reduction in killings related to the crackdown in Iran and no plans for large-scale executions, which partially withdrew some geopolitical risk premiums, though the long-term bullish bias remains intact. After hitting a fresh all-time high of $4642.77 per ounce in the previous session, prices are currently trading near $4595, remaining close to historic peaks. Former Icelandic President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson issued a stern warning, stating that a potential U.S. military seizure of Greenland would precipitate an "unprecedented" crisis for Western alliances and the international order. While this event hasn't directly pushed gold prices higher in the short term, it significantly reinforces the core narrative of "fragmentation of the international order," which underpins gold's long-term bull market. Gold technical analysis: From the current chart perspective, after three consecutive days of gains, gold has reached a high near 4643. There is now some resistance from the upper trendline; combined with the previous upward trendline, a potential rising wedge pattern may be forming. While this pattern doesn't definitively signal an impending decline, it at least suggests that the upward momentum is losing steam. As prices climb higher, the room for further appreciation diminishes, and a downward move could occur at any time. Although gold hasn't declined yet, Thursday's session is likely to see such a pattern—concluding that an effective correction is due today, with key support levels to watch at 4570 and 4520. From a technical standpoint, two key changes are evident today. First, Wednesday's K-line closed below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a less aggressive and extreme bullish performance compared to Tuesday and Wednesday. Second, the H4 chart shows the Bollinger Bands contracting, with the 5 and 10-day moving averages forming a hooking pattern, signaling a clear downward move for gold. A corrective wave is highly probable today, with initial support expected at Wednesday's key level of 4570, followed by the weekly target zone of 4520/4500. Therefore, it is again advised to exercise caution amidst the current frenzied bullish sentiment—avoid chasing the rally and be wary of a sharp reversal. Of course, even if a pullback occurs, gold's overarching bullish trend remains unchanged. Keep an eye on the U.S. unemployment claims data released in the evening. Overall, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance lies in the 4630-4650 range, while key short-term support is focused around 4580-4560. Crude oil's latest market trend analysis: Crude oil market outlook: During the early European session on Thursday (January 15th), U.S. crude oil prices trended lower with an intraday decline of approximately 2.5%, currently trading near $59.95 per barrel due to persistent fundamental supply pressures. The previous session saw roller-coaster price action with an intraday amplitude of 5.11%, initially rising on market concerns about disruptions to Iranian crude supply, then retreating as reports indicated a scaling back of the crackdown. Prices had briefly touched $62.20, a near three-month high. Looking ahead, oil price movements will depend on whether protests escalate into disruptions of production or export infrastructure. While the current impact is primarily driven by market sentiment, any signs of regional instability or potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz could trigger more significant and sustained price spikes—especially considering U.S. President Trump's recent statement that "aid is on the way." Crude oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices entered a consolidation phase after touching the $54.80 area. The K-line chart shows three consecutive bullish candles, with prices breaking through and repeatedly crossing the moving average system, indicating a transition to a medium-term objective trend of consolidation. Although the $60.50 level was breached, continuity remains to be observed; the probability of a sustained medium-term upward trend is low, with risks of a reversal still present. On the short-term (1H) chart, the continuous upward move has concluded. After hitting $62.20, prices reversed sharply, forming a large bearish candle that erased the day's gains. The short-term objective trend is now consolidating, with the subjective short-term direction pointing downward. Monitor the intraday volatility and angle of movement; the likelihood of a rebound to new highs today is minimal, with prices expected to maintain a predominantly oscillating rhythm. Overall, the recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is observed in the 61.0-62.0 range, while key short-term support lies around 58.5-57.5.
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