GTHT released a research report stating that the long-term thesis for precious metals remains solid, with short-term volatility presenting favorable entry points. Subsequently, as semiconductor recovery and AI capacity expansion gradually materialize, the copper sector's valuation still has room for repair. The firm advises monitoring potential earnings revisions for companies benefiting from improving macro sentiment and strengthening supply disruptions driving tin prices higher. The value of strategic metals is becoming prominent. From a medium to long-term perspective, the firm maintains a positive outlook on the investment value of rare earths as a critical strategic resource. GTHT's main views are as follows:
Precious Metals: Inflation Moderates, Fed Chair Stresses Independence The broader trend of US-Iran-Israel conflict has eased. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, the rise in US core CPI data was lower than expected, temporarily pausing the inflation narrative. The new Federal Reserve Chair emphasized the Fed's independence. Amid concerns over the inflation outlook, market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been pushed back. The long-term logic for precious metals remains robust, with short-term fluctuations offering good strategic entry points. Recommendations: Shandong Gold Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. Related targets: Zhaojin Mining Industry, Shengda Resources.
Copper: US-Iran De-escalation Eases Pressure; Room for Copper Equity Recovery Remains US real interest rates continue to decline, releasing some macro pressure on copper prices. However, demand is weak due to high copper prices and seasonal factors, while expectations for supply-side disruptions are marginally weakening. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly at high levels. Subsequent attention should be paid to the impact of US tariffs. Most stocks in the sector have not yet recovered to previous highs alongside copper prices. With subsequent improvements in macro risk appetite and rising copper prices, there remains upside potential. Recommended targets: Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining Group.
Aluminum: Strong Aluminum Product Exports Boost Demand; Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Continues Slow Drawdown Inflation expectations persist, and the Fed maintains a wait-and-see monetary policy stance, leading to short-term range-bound aluminum prices. On the demand side, customs data shows aluminum product exports reached 535,700 tons in April, up 20.9% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year. Export resilience has become a core support for current aluminum demand. The operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 64.1%. On the inventory front, SMM statistics show domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum at 1.401 million tons, a drawdown of 11,000 tons month-on-month, steadily establishing a destocking trend. Recommendations: Yunnan Aluminium, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Group; Related targets: Aluminum Corporation of China, China Hongqiao, Chuangxin Industrial.
Tin: Supply Disruptions Support Prices; AI and Semiconductor Recovery Drive Equity Re-rating The pandemic in Congo (DRC) may affect mine supply, while production resumption in Myanmar is lagging, leading to tight supply. However, high prices are suppressing procurement by solder and electronics companies, suggesting short-term price volatility. Subsequently, as semiconductor recovery and AI capacity expansion gradually materialize, the sector's valuation still has room for repair. Focus is on potential earnings revisions for companies benefiting from improving macro sentiment and strengthening supply disruptions driving tin prices higher. Recommended targets: Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Yunnan Tin, Xingye Silver Tin; Related target: Xinjinlu.
Energy Metals: Demand Expectations Disrupt Prices; Supply Narrative Fluctuates Lithium Carbonate: Last week, lithium carbonate production continued to decline. Supply disruptions from Zimbabwe are occurring, and lithium carbonate inventories continued to draw down. The supply side is affected by new regulations, making the outlook for production resumption volatile. Supply and demand remain tight. Recommendations: Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Industrial Group, Zangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium. Related target: Tibet Mineral Development. Nickel Sector: Indonesia is tightening nickel ore quotas and redefining nickel price formulas. Nickel supply is gradually moving from surplus towards balance. Coupled with strong sulfur prices, the firm expects the nickel price center to gradually shift upward. Recommendation: Huayou Cobalt. Related target: GEM Co., Ltd.
Rare Earths: Prices Show Weak Fluctuations Overall market trading was relatively quiet last week, with rare earth prices showing a weak and fluctuating trend. From a medium to long-term perspective, the firm maintains a positive outlook on the investment value of rare earths as a critical strategic resource. Recommended leading rare earth targets: China Rare Earth, JL MAG Rare-Earth.
Strategic Metals: Value Becoming Prominent Tungsten: The tungsten supply-demand dynamic is marginally improving, and a sector recovery is anticipated. Recent mine shipments have slowed. While APT inventories are drawing down, capacity utilization rates are declining. Meanwhile, downstream restocking demand is recovering, leading to a marginal improvement in supply-demand fundamentals and a rebound in tungsten prices. Some targets with strong alpha have led the recovery. If, in Q3, rigid supply tightening, improved peak season demand, and strengthened strategic attributes resonate, the sector could see both price recovery and valuation re-rating. It is advised to continue focusing on targets with high proportions of proprietary mines, either overseas or domestically. Recommended targets: Xiamen Tungsten, China Tungsten and Hightech; Related targets: Zhangyuan Tungsten, Jiaxin International Resources. Uranium: The April natural uranium long-term contract price was $91.5 per pound, flat compared to March. Rigid supply and nuclear power development create a persistent supply-demand gap for uranium, suggesting continued upward price potential. Recommended target: China National Uranium; Related target: CGN Mining. Tantalum: Tantalum prices corrected from highs and then rose. Geopolitical fluctuations and supply disruptions have led tantalum concentrate prices to gradually return to rationality, but the globally tight supply structure has not changed. Coupled with rising terminal demand driven by emerging industries like AI, the firm expects tantalum prices to remain elevated. Recommended target: Orient Tantalum Industry.
Risk Warning: Downstream demand weaker than expected; substantial supply-side releases; Federal Reserve rate cuts falling short of expectations.
Comments