Despite a recent pullback after a rally, the short-term adjustment does not signal the end of the upward trend for the securities sector. From a valuation perspective, the sector is currently in a bottom range with strong fundamental support. Quantitative analysis suggests that in a slow-bull market scenario, the securities sector has two potential paths for appreciation: one is a gradual valuation re-rating and catch-up rally driven by stabilizing trading volume logic; the other is a breakout above the valuation ceiling, fueled by unexpected financial policy catalysts. Both scenarios indicate that the brokerage sector rally is inevitable, and the window for strategic bottom-fishing is gradually approaching.
The recent market pattern of rising then falling back, coupled with adjustments to margin requirements for margin trading and securities lending, has sparked widespread divergence in market views. However, this adjustment is not a trend reversal but a healthy correction to short-term overheating, which will guide the market away from speculative theme炒作 and gradually evolve towards a slow-bull market. The securities sector's rally will not be absent from this process.
Stock market activity is a synchronous indicator for the valuation and performance of the securities industry, with its prosperity level determining the lower bound of the sector's valuation. Unexpected financial policies are the core variable that can break through the sector's valuation ceiling. Currently, high capital market activity combined with expectations for a slow-bull market lays a solid foundation for active stock market trading in 2026. Furthermore, the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan signals high attention to the capital markets, leaving open the possibility of unexpected financial policy catalysts in the future. Overall, the securities sector presents a clear pattern with a solid floor below and room for upside above.
From a quantitative dimension, using a sample of 50 brokerages as the research object, under different scenarios of average daily turnover of 1,800/2,000/2,200 billion yuan, the corresponding PB(LF) based on Q3 2025 net asset figures are 1.36x, 1.43x, and 1.50x respectively. These calculation results constitute the valuation floor for the sector. 1) The current valuation has already touched the sector's solid lower bound, providing ample safety margin. As of January 16, 2026, the total market capitalization of the sample brokerages is approximately 3,990.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a PB(LF) of only 1.34x, which is already below the calculated valuation floor. Against the backdrop of an A-share slow-bull market, if the average daily stock market turnover in 2026 gradually stabilizes and climbs towards the assumed range, the sector is expected to initiate a catch-up rally at some point, with valuations converging towards the calculated range of 1.36x~1.50x PB.
2) Financial policy catalysts are the key variable for breaking the valuation ceiling. If unexpected financial policy catalysts emerge subsequently, the market is likely to assign a higher valuation premium based on policy-driven growth logic. The sector's valuation elasticity is expected to be comparable to the two previous景气 cycles of 2014-2015 (2.0-4.0x PB) and 2020-2021 (1.8-2.0x PB), thereby breaking through the existing valuation range.
Uncertainty in market price fluctuations: Capital market prices are influenced by numerous factors, including fluctuations in the macroeconomy, changes in the global economic landscape, and shifts in investor sentiment, all of which may trigger stock price movements or impact the valuations of institutions such as brokerages and insurance companies. The performance of the non-bank financial industry is significantly affected by market prices and trading volumes. Uncertainty in corporate earnings forecasts: The profitability of the securities and insurance industries is subject to various influences; forecasts regarding industry valuation and performance contained in the report carry a degree of uncertainty. Additionally, intensifying competition within the industry may lead to deviations in forecast results. Technological updates and iterations: The rapid development of emerging technologies requires financial institutions to continuously follow and adapt to the pace of technological change. However, the accelerated speed of technological iteration also brings high R&D investment and talent training costs, potentially increasing the operating costs of brokerages and insurance companies, while the爆发 of technological innovation itself possesses inherent uncertainty.
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