May 22: In the previous trading session on Thursday (May 21), international gold prices stabilized with a recovery from lower levels. The movement followed former President Trump's statement that Iran would face further attacks unless it agreed to a deal, coupled with disputes over a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, which dampened prospects for a breakthrough. This initially pressured gold prices lower. However, Iran indicated that the latest U.S. proposal had narrowed some differences between the conflicting parties. Al Jazeera reported that the U.S. and Iran are very close to reaching an agreement, which weakened the U.S. dollar and lowered Treasury yields, supporting gold prices. Gold maintained consolidation near recent lows, suggesting limited downside momentum and a bias for a short-term rebound. The market awaits a retest of resistance at the 60-day and 100-day moving averages.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,545.85 per ounce, initially strengthening to reach an intraday high of $4,570.57 before encountering resistance and retreating. The decline continued into the U.S. session, touching an intraday low of $4,488.97. Prices then rebounded from this low, ultimately closing at $4,542.79. The daily range was $81.6, with a close down $3.06, a decline of 0.067%.
Looking ahead to today, Friday (May 22), international gold opened with weakness. Al Arabiya refuted reports from Iranian media citing it regarding a U.S.-Iran agreement, which further reduced support for gold prices.
Fundamentally, however, the market's anticipation of U.S.-Iran negotiations has kept oil prices trading below the middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages, with bears in control and a weak short-term bias. The U.S. Dollar Index continues to consolidate at high levels, and yesterday formed a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern on the daily chart, suggesting an overall bearish bias that should support gold. Therefore, gold prices are still biased towards a bullish rebound intraday or next week, with potential targets at $4,660 or $4,700.
Intraday focus will be on the final reading of the U.S. May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the final U.S. May One-Year Inflation Expectations, and the U.S. April Conference Board Leading Indicators Month-over-Month data. Market expectations lean towards being bearish for gold. However, given that yesterday's overall negative data failed to sustain downward pressure and instead triggered a bottoming rebound, tonight's data may once again prompt a gold price recovery. Consequently, for intraday trading, one can initially watch for a pullback to support levels before looking for a bullish rebound.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold prices are trading below the 5-month moving average, indicating weakness. A close below the support of the 10-month moving average at $4,370 could open the path towards $4,100 or even the $3,800 level. Conversely, a close back above the 5-month moving average at $4,800 would signal a potential restart of the bull market.
On the weekly chart, gold is currently trading below the middle Bollinger Band, the 5- and 10-week moving averages, as well as the 30-week moving average. Oscillators also maintain bearish signals, indicating weakness and suggesting a potential short-term decline towards targets at $4,380 and below $4,100. However, the current price action is consolidating, and the bearish momentum in oscillators is persistently weakening. If this week closes with a consolidation pattern, the outlook may shift towards sideways movement or a rebound strengthening in the future.
On the daily chart, gold is currently in a phase of rebounding from a震荡下行 (consolidating decline). For phased trading strategies, resistance can be watched at the 30-day moving average and the descending channel pressure for potential shorts, while support at the lower Bollinger Band and the 200-day moving average can be watched for potential bullish rebounds. For intraday短线 (short-term) trading, focus on support near yesterday's low and resistance at the 10-day moving average for long/short opportunities.
Specific real-time trading guidance follows live account information. Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are for reference; specific entry and exit points are subject to real account notifications: Gold: Watch support near $4,505 or $4,485; watch resistance near $4,580 or $4,600. Silver: Watch support near $75.80 or $75.00; watch resistance near $77.65 or $79.00.
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