Upon waking, it seemed the entire world was laughing at Donald Trump—except for Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae.
First, regarding Trump: Late on March 18, U.S. time, around 10 p.m., Trump posted a highly suggestive tweet. It was lengthy, verbose, characteristic of his style, and highly amusing to the global audience.
Trump stated: Israel launched a fierce attack on Iran's South Pars gas field due to anger over the Middle East situation. The strike affected only a small portion of the field. The United States was completely unaware of the attack, and Qatar had no involvement or prior knowledge. Unfortunately, Iran, knowing nothing about the South Pars incident or any related facts, unjustifiably attacked Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities. Unless Iran foolishly decides to target innocent Qatar, Israel will not launch further attacks on the extremely valuable South Pars field. If Iran attacks innocent parties, the U.S., with or without Israel's assistance or consent, will destroy the entire South Pars field with unprecedented force. I do not wish to authorize such violence and destruction, as it would have long-term consequences for Iran's future. But if Qatar's LNG facilities are attacked again, I will not hesitate to act. Thank you for your attention...
The context of this tweet was Israel's surprise attack on Iran's largest gas field, marking a significant escalation as Israel openly targeted Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran promptly retaliated by striking energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, with missiles hitting Qatar's largest gas base—Ras Laffan Industrial City.
Ras Laffan is the world's largest natural gas base, reportedly supplying 20% of global liquefied natural gas. According to Qatari reports, Iran's attack disabled 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in annual revenue losses and threatening supplies to numerous countries.
International oil and gas prices surged once again as a result. Trump, likely alarmed, issued this tweet to convey several key points: 1. The attack on Iran's gas field was carried out by Israel without the knowledge of Qatar or the U.S. 2. Iran's retaliation against Qatar's gas facilities was unjustified, as Iran lacked full understanding of the situation. 3. Trump has ordered Israel to cease such actions and warned Iran that further attacks would lead to the destruction of its gas field.
However, Trump likely did not anticipate the widespread skepticism and amusement his tweet would provoke. Few people believed his claims: 1. While Trump denied U.S. involvement, Israeli officials suggested he was aware and supportive, interpreting the attack as a joint U.S.-Israel warning to Iran against disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro mocked the statement, noting that the Israeli Defense Forces would not act without approval from U.S. Central Command. He argued Trump was aware but backtracked to avoid escalation. 3. The tweet contained puzzling details, such as Trump's description of Israel's anger and his downplaying of the initial attack while condemning Iran's response. 4. Many found it ironic that Trump threatened to destroy Iran's gas field, which is geologically connected to Qatar's. Such an action would harm Qatar's infrastructure and potentially cause an ecological crisis, effectively aiding Iran in damaging Qatar.
In short, Israel claimed U.S. knowledge, Trump denied it, and the situation devolved into a confusing spectacle that amused the world.
Trust between nations, once broken, is difficult to restore. Iran has learned this lesson painfully. Last year, during negotiations with the U.S., Israel launched a surprise attack followed by American involvement. This year, while again engaged in talks, the U.S. and Israel initiated hostilities without warning, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei and much of Iran's leadership.
Given Trump's inconsistent and contradictory statements, the world has grown accustomed to his unpredictability. Iran's response has become simple and resigned: no negotiations, and reciprocal attacks on neighboring infrastructure if targeted. After 20 days of conflict, the war has reached a stalemate, with both sides inflicting damage but unable to secure victory.
Iran cannot prevent U.S. and Israeli strikes, but the latter struggle to counter Iranian missiles. As the weaker party, Iran suffers greater losses, but the U.S. and Israel also face consequences. Recent developments include Israel's assassination of three Iranian leaders, including Larijani, forcing Iran to prepare for worst-case scenarios. However, surrender is unlikely, as retaliation remains a key legitimacy source for new leaders. Iran claims to have shot down a U.S. F-35, demonstrating that American and Israeli air dominance is not absolute.
Trump faces a dilemma. Destroying Iranian infrastructure risks provoking severe retaliation and spiking oil prices, harming the global economy and his interests. Deploying ground troops, while possible—evidenced by 2,000 U.S. Marines heading to the Middle East—could lead to a protracted conflict. Trump's ambiguous stance reflects this uncertainty, leaving the world skeptical of his intentions.
Meanwhile, Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae did not share in the global amusement. The day after Trump's tweet, on March 19, she met with him at the White House. Trump praised Japan, contrasting it with NATO, and implied Japan would assist the U.S. in patrolling the Strait of Hormuz—a request refused by European allies.
When a Japanese journalist asked why the U.S. did not inform allies like Japan before attacking Iran, Trump replied that surprise was essential, sarcastically referencing Pearl Harbor. The audience laughed, but Takaichi and the Japanese delegation were visibly displeased. Japan, a close ally, was left uninformed and vulnerable to oil price shocks, highlighting the fragility of such partnerships.
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