AIDC sector remains robust, with power demand and power equipment needs experiencing explosive growth. According to U.S. Department of Energy forecasts, AIDC electricity demand is projected to rise from 176 TWh in 2023 to 325–580 TWh by 2028, increasing its share of total U.S. electricity consumption from 4.4% to between 6.7% and 12%. The U.S. grid is severely aged, with 70% of transformers already exceeding their 25-year design life. With a grid reserve margin of only 20%, the system is ill-prepared to handle the surge in electricity demand driven by AI. Growth in AIDC demand is further intensifying pressure on the grid. Chinese exports in areas such as AIDC-coupled energy storage, transformers, gas turbines, and diesel generators are expected to benefit.
Key points are outlined below:
**Sustained AI Boom and Strong Capital Expenditure Growth at Home and Abroad** At the beginning of 2026, North American tech giants announced capital expenditure plans. Amazon's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is $200 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%. Google's capital expenditure is expected to reach $175–185 billion, up 91%–102% year-on-year. Meta's capital expenditure is forecast to be $115–135 billion, an increase of 59%–87%. Domestically, Alibaba plans to increase its investment in AI infrastructure and cloud computing over the next three years from 380 billion yuan to 480 billion yuan. ByteDance expects its 2026 capital expenditure to reach 160 billion yuan, with a focus on AI infrastructure construction. The AIDC sector continues to show strong momentum, with power and power equipment demand growing rapidly.
**Transition from External Cabinet Power to 800V HVDC High-Voltage Direct Current** The explosion in AI computing demand has driven single-chip power to the kilowatt level and sharply increased cabinet power density. Traditional 54V power supply systems suffer from low efficiency and high space requirements under high voltage and current, making them unsuitable for high-density computing deployments. 800V HVDC offers high efficiency, high reliability, smaller footprint, and reduces copper usage by approximately 45%, making it an increasingly viable solution. Internationally, NVIDIA expects to accelerate the transition to 800V HVDC starting in 2027. OCP Alliance members including Meta, Google, and Microsoft are advancing 400V power solutions. Domestic manufacturers are expected to achieve initial shipments in the second half of 2026. Domestically, current single-cabinet power remains relatively low (mainly 20–100 kW), with limited chip supply and computing scale, reducing the urgency for 800V adoption. Hybrid architectures (UPS + localized 800V application) will dominate in the short term.
Multiple implementation paths exist for 800V HVDC, including sidecar architecture, Panama, and SST, coexisting across various scenarios. According to NVIDIA's 800V whitepaper, the transition from current 54V power architecture to 800V power is underway. UPS and HVDC power distribution systems will continue to develop in parallel long-term. 800V HVDC penetration is expected to rise rapidly during 2026–2027. The 400V ecosystem is mature and suitable for rapid overseas deployment, while 800V HVDC is better suited for high-power loads, offers lower costs, and provides room for future high-power upgrades. Solid-state transformers (SST) integrate functions of transformers, switchgear, and power supplies through high integration of semiconductor devices like silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN), representing a future development trend. Commercial adoption is expected to begin around 2027, with SST potentially becoming a mainstream solution by 2029–2030, driving accelerated penetration.
**Increased Power Density within Cabinets Elevates Importance of BBUs and Supercapacitors** With the volume production of NVIDIA's Rubin and Rubin Ultra platforms beginning in 2026, server power supplies are expected to gradually adopt new semiconductor materials like SiC and GaN, accelerating the replacement of traditional silicon-based devices. Internationally, power ratings in the NVIDIA supply chain are evolving from 5.5 kW to 8–12 kW. Domestically, 5.5 kW power supplies are expected to see gradual penetration, significantly increasing the value of server power supplies. The industry landscape shows Taiwanese manufacturers like Delta and Lite-On dominating the high-end AI market, while mainland Chinese manufacturers such as Megmeet, Europtronic, Sinpro Energy, and KSTAR are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets. With the future launch of NVIDIA's GB300 servers, addressing core challenges like voltage fluctuations and instantaneous current surges under high-power AI loads becomes critical. The combination of HVDC, BBU, and supercapacitors is expected to become standard for AI servers, creating clear incremental demand. According to QYResearch, global BBU power supply market sales are projected to grow from $1.397 billion in 2024 to $3.1 billion in 2031, with a CAGR of 12.7% from 2025 to 2031. Supercapacitors provide safe and stable backup power for 5G networks and data centers without compromising operational efficiency. QYResearch forecasts the global supercapacitor technology market will grow from approximately $3.71 billion in 2024 to $4.95 billion in 2033, with a CAGR of 3.3% from 2025 to 2033.
**Liquid Cooling Transitions from Pilot Phase to Mass Production in 2026, Approaching a Market Scale of Hundreds of Billions** 1. Google announced a significant 50% increase in its 2026 TPU chip shipment target to 6 million units. Its new-generation TPU v7 chip has a power consumption of up to 980W per chip, requiring 100% adoption of liquid cooling solutions. NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin series chips are expected to reach 2300W power consumption. The step-like increase in single-chip power consumption and cabinet power density is accelerating the adoption of liquid cooling in AIDC, pushing it from pilot projects to widespread use. TrendForce estimates the penetration rate of liquid cooling in AI data centers will rise from 14% in 2024 to 40% in 2026. The global liquid cooling market is projected to reach approximately $15 billion (about 105 billion yuan) in 2026, with a CAGR of around 30% from 2026 to 2028. 2. Technologically, liquid cooling is structured with cold plate DTC as the backbone, microchannel and two-phase technology as high-end supplements, and immersion cooling for extreme high-density scenarios. Cold plate liquid cooling requires minimal modifications to server chip components, offers a smooth transition from air cooling, has a relatively mature supply chain, and is widely applicable. Efforts will focus on improving heat exchange efficiency, reducing costs, and expanding application scenarios. Microchannel technology integrates the chip metal heat spreader with the liquid cold plate, etching micrometer-scale channels internally so that coolant flows directly over the chip surface. This significantly shortens the heat transfer path, increases contact area, and improves efficiency by 40%–60% compared to traditional cold plates. Main microchannel structures include straight channels, serpentine channels, interdigitated channels, stepped channels, and manifold types, categorized by heat exchange method into single-phase and two-phase flow. Primary coolants include water-based fluids and fluorinated liquids, with hybrid coolants and liquid metals representing cutting-edge innovations. Companies like TSMC, NVIDIA, and Microsoft are driving technology implementation, positioning microchannel liquid cooling at a critical juncture transitioning from lab research to large-scale industrial application. Immersion cooling development has been relatively slow due to the high cost of fluorinated liquids and coolant performance issues. However, with the broader application of high-density chips, immersion cooling is expected to experience faster growth in the future. 3. The design complexity for components in the liquid cooling supply chain, such as CDUs, cold plates, UQDs, and Manifolds, will further increase. Currently, Europe and America lead in system and service provision, while manufacturing is concentrated in mainland China and Taiwan, leveraging overseas production capacity and projects with partners like NVIDIA and Google to integrate into the global supply chain. Coupled with domestic AI computing infrastructure build-out, the liquid cooling sector continues to exhibit strong growth prospects.
**North American Power Shortage Highlights Opportunities for Overseas Expansion of AIDC Energy Storage, Transformers, Gas Turbines, and Diesel Generators** The power shortage in North America and the need for grid updates are continuously expanding. Multiple approaches, including gas turbines, SOFCs, SMRs, and AIDC-coupled storage, are being employed to increase power supply. The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts AIDC electricity demand growing from 176 TWh in 2023 to 325–580 TWh by 2028. The U.S. grid is severely aged, and its limited reserve margin struggles to cope with AI-driven demand surges, which are further exacerbated by AIDC growth. The overall power shortage in North America is significant. The high growth and geographic concentration of AIDC power demand (e.g., in Virginia, Texas, California) worsen the shortage. AIDC power faces a triple constraint of high demand, supply limitations, and lengthy grid connection times: 1. Direct connection of solar power and storage is an effective solution. Under the backup power logic for North American AIDC, demand is projected to rise from approximately 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GWh by 2030, a CAGR of about 84%. Under the direct green power connection logic, demand is expected to increase from about 78 GWh in 2025 to 475 GWh by 2030, a CAGR of approximately 44%. 2. The supply gap for power transformers in North America reaches 30%. China accounts for 60% of global transformer production capacity, indicating favorable prospects for Chinese transformer exports. 3. Orders for the three major gas turbine manufacturers—GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries—are booked until 2028, but they maintain limited expansion. Core components like hot section power turbine blades and spindles have high value proportions, and expanding high-end casting and production involves long lead times. This presents opportunities for mainland Chinese manufacturers to enter the global supply chain. Domestic OEMs and suppliers of key components like blades, castings, and materials are poised to benefit. 4. Overseas demand for diesel generators is growing rapidly. The global high-power market is dominated by Cummins, Caterpillar, MTU, Mitsubishi, and Kohler, who are expanding conservatively, creating supply constraints. Domestic OEMs and component manufacturers have opportunities to expand through exports.
**Risk Warning** Risks include capital expenditure falling short of expectations, AI development progressing slower than anticipated, geopolitical risks, and intensifying competition.
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