Citi has released a research report noting that China's apparent cement demand peaked in 2014 and has since fallen by roughly 3.3% per year, while the bank views steel as belonging to a "later cycle" relative to cement, with a slower medium-term decline expected. The diverging trends in road construction and railway investment over the past three years already reflect this divergence.
Steel demand last peaked in 2020 at around 1.03 billion tonnes, after which it has declined by roughly 3.9% annually over the following five years, with a 2.9% year-on-year drop in the first half of this year. The bank notes that the past five years also included a sharp fall in property demand and steel destocking, so the pace of decline is expected to slow or stabilise.
If steel demand continues to fall by around 3.9% year-on-year, that equates to an annual reduction of roughly 30 million to 35 million tonnes. However, the bank expects India's steel demand growth to offset at least half of that.
China's annualised cement output has dropped to its lowest level since 2009, while steel output remains about 65% above the 2009 level. If China's net steel exports fall back to 2009 levels, which were close to negligible, then with all other conditions unchanged, steel output would be only about 43% higher than in 2009.
The bank also points out that cement is more of an early-cycle commodity, whereas steel is more driven by durable consumer goods and more advanced infrastructure.
Road construction has slowed, falling 9.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 and 11% year-on-year for the full year of 2024, marking a third consecutive year of decline. Railway investment has been more resilient, rising 5.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, following an 11% year-on-year increase for the full year of 2024, and is on track for the highest year of railway investment on record.
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