Rebar
Rebar futures settled higher yesterday, with the rb2701 contract closing at 3,117 yuan per tonne, up 21 yuan or 0.68% from the prior session, while open interest declined by 51,800 lots. Cash prices inched up with improved trading volumes: Qian'an billet in Tangshan rose 10 yuan to 3,010 yuan per tonne, and Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou climbed 10 yuan to 3,160 yuan per tonne. National construction material transactions reached 111,500 tonnes.Based on Gangyin data, nationwide construction material inventories fell 3.4% week-over-week to 5.0873 million tonnes, while hot-rolled coil (HRC) inventories rose 0.75% to 2.5416 million tonnes. The continued sharp drawdown in construction material inventories contrasts with persistent pressure from HRC stock levels. Recent weeks have seen gradual improvements in rebar end-user demand, with inventories performing notably better than the same period last year. Total rebar inventory has contracted by 147,100 tonnes year-on-year, indicating that high inventory pressure has been substantially digested. The near-term outlook for rebar suggests a rangebound-to-firm trend.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded within a narrow band, with the i2701 contract closing at 715 yuan per tonne, down 0.5 yuan or 0.07% from the previous close, on volume of 239,900 lots and open interest shrinking by 4,700 lots. Port cash prices were largely steady with slight dips: Rizhao's 60.8% PB fines fell 1 yuan to 679 yuan, while Carajas fines held at 845 yuan per tonne. According to Mysteel, global iron ore shipments totaled 34.258 million tonnes this period, down 913,000 tonnes week-over-week. Australia and Brazil combined shipments rose by 451,000 tonnes to 28.873 million tonnes, with Australian volumes climbing 1.025 million tonnes to 21.024 million tonnes—including 17.206 million tonnes destined for China, up 941,000 tonnes. Brazilian shipments, however, fell 574,000 tonnes to 7.85 million tonnes. Arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 300,000 tonnes to 28.675 million tonnes, while 45-port arrivals edged up 65,000 tonnes to 27.437 million tonnes.On the supply side, Australian shipments continued to rise, with proportional increases in volumes bound for China. Major miners maintain a steady shipping pace, keeping overall supply ample. Despite a modest dip in arrivals, absolute levels remain high, leaving supply pressure largely unabated in the near term. On the demand side, pig iron output has rebounded modestly from low levels, but steel mill profitability remains poor, limiting incentives for output restarts and keeping raw material procurement cautious. The short-term view for ore prices points to continued narrow-range fluctuations.
Coking Coal
Coking coal futures trended higher, with the jm2701 contract closing at 1,523 yuan per tonne, up 36 yuan or 2.42% from the previous day, while open interest fell by 10,896 lots. In the spot market, Jiexiu premium coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) dropped 20 yuan to 2,230 yuan per tonne, while Ganqimaodu port's Mongolian #5 raw coal held steady at 1,640 yuan, and Mongolian #3 washed coal remained flat at 1,780 yuan.Driven by stable production and supply security policies, marginal output increases are anticipated on the supply side. Although some mines across the primary production regions of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have seen limited restarts, the overall pace has lagged expectations, with utilization rates still relatively low. The tight supply conditions for premium coking coal and fat coal persist. Policy signals have shifted slightly, permitting qualifying mines that exceed capacity to operate at approved levels until end-December 2026, tempering previous extreme bullish expectations of sustained supply contraction due to strict safety oversight. Steel makers' profitability has deteriorated sharply, heightening the risk of negative chain feedback. Mills are far less willing to accept high-priced coking coal, shifting procurement to need-based restocking, while some traders are proactively cutting prices to offload inventory. Market sentiment has clearly weakened, pointing to rangebound coking coal futures trading in the near term.
Coke
Coke futures strengthened, as the j2701 contract settled at 1,985 yuan per tonne, up 32.5 yuan or 1.66% from the prior session, with open interest reducing by 3,472 lots. In physical markets, Rizhao's quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke rose 10 yuan to 1,930 yuan per tonne. Coke producers have seen a meaningful recovery in profitability, transitioning from deep losses to decent margins—currently around 70 yuan per tonne. This improved profitability has lifted production enthusiasm, with independent coking plant utilization rates ticking up and some plants planning output hikes. Producers continue to actively destock, with on-site inventories declining steadily, gradually tightening market-available coke supply.High pig iron output underpins essential demand, though loss-making steel mills constrain procurement flexibility. Daily pig iron production at steel mills remains elevated, with concentrated restarts of previously idled furnaces further bolstering coke consumption and providing strong demand support. Near-term coke futures are expected to remain rangebound.
Manganese Silicon (SiMn)
On Monday, manganese silicon futures trended higher, with the main contract settling at 5,808 yuan per tonne, up 0.41% from the prior session, while open interest fell by 3,570 lots to 290,600 contracts. The broader ferrous complex showed diverging trends, with SiMn prices drifting slightly higher. On the news front, Chongqing Bosai and Baise Bisheng both announced full production halts at their subsidiaries, cutting combined monthly output by 65,000 tonnes. Fundamentals remain mixed: although immediate production margins have compressed recently, SiMn producer operating rates continued to rise week-over-week as of last week, with weekly output climbing 2% to 182,800 tonnes. Demand shows marginal improvement but remains at low absolute levels, with sample steel mill SiMn demand rising 0.22% week-over-week to 111,000 tonnes. Inventory among 63 sampled producers stood at 365,700 tonnes—down 18,300 tonnes week-over-week but still 165,800 tonnes above year-ago levels.Overall, gradually easing supply-side pressure offers some support, yet sustained upward drivers are lacking. The near-term bias is for rangebound SiMn futures.
Ferrosilicon
On Monday, ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract settling at 5,990 yuan per tonne, down 0.27% from the prior session, while open interest decreased by 8,635 lots to 273,800 contracts. The ferrous complex showed mixed performance, with ferrosilicon prices easing modestly. Fundamentals show a slight weekly production decline, as plant maintenance and restarts offset each other—output fell 5.11% week-over-week to 113,300 tonnes. Demand has warmed slightly, with inquiries and purchases improving; sample steel mill ferrosilicon demand rose 0.76% week-over-week to 18,100 tonnes, though absolute levels remain low. Inventory among 60 sampled plants increased by 1,250 tonnes week-over-week to 82,290 tonnes, sitting at elevated levels relative to recent years.Given limited fundamental momentum, ferrosilicon futures are likely to remain rangebound, with attention on pre-holiday downstream stocking activity.
Disclaimer: This report is based solely on publicly available information. The company makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of this information and does not warrant that any contained data or recommendations will remain unchanged. While every effort has been made to ensure objectivity and fairness, the views, conclusions, and suggestions herein are for reference only and do not constitute promotion of any specific product or business, nor operational recommendations for related commodities. Investors make their own decisions and bear all associated risks; the company and authors accept no liability.
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