On September 24, TrendForce released its monthly global photovoltaic supply chain price trend report, highlighting ongoing pressure on prices amid weak demand expansion.
In the polysilicon segment, inventory levels continued to climb this week, surpassing 550,000 metric tons, which intensifies the supply-demand surplus. Despite this, strong policy expectations have kept silicon material quotes above 40 yuan per kilogram, placing the market in a tug-of-war between soft fundamentals and anticipated policy support. Overall, participants remain cautious, with actual transactions limited to small orders, specific channels, and futures-spot trades, reflecting limited acceptance of current higher price levels. Trading activity remains subdued.
Expectations for substantial production cuts in October are growing, supported by leading manufacturers' firm pricing stance. Major players continue to hold quotes near cost lines, with no proactive price reductions or low-price dumping observed. As wafer manufacturers steadily consume their silicon material stocks, the likelihood of price stabilization is gradually increasing. Whether a new price framework can be established still depends on policy implementation and execution of output reductions. If actual cuts fall short of expectations, silicon material prices could face downward risk.
Wafer inventories remain stable at around 26 GW, with prices gradually firming. Upstream silicon material prices holding steady provide some support, yet relatively high wafer stock levels and expectations of some overseas slow-moving wafer supply flowing back into the market exert ongoing pressure. Mainstream transaction prices for 183, 210R, and 210 wafers stand at 1.00 yuan, 1.02 yuan, and 1.13 yuan per piece respectively, with low-priced supply diminishing and prices trending toward stability. Support for wafer prices has strengthened, driven by rising downstream cell prices, stabilizing silicon material costs, and pre-holiday restocking demand ahead of the National Day break. Market attention now focuses on silicon material price movements and wafer inventory digestion.
Cell inventories have dipped slightly to around seven days, easing shipment pressure and allowing prices to stabilize with transaction levels moving upward. Recent small price increases for cells stem from improved supply-demand dynamics and cost-side support. On one hand, some specialized cell manufacturers have reduced 183 cell output, tightening supply and reinforcing price-holding intentions among other producers. On the other hand, demand for high-efficiency cells, particularly 210R variants, has risen in markets such as the Middle East and India. Additionally, fourth-quarter domestic utility-scale projects are releasing demand for 210 cells, and pre-holiday restocking has driven phased demand improvement. Recovering silver prices and stable wafer prices also lend support to cell pricing. However, current improvements are largely temporary. As overseas orders near completion and external trade policies shift, new overseas demand in October is expected to taper, leaving room for further reductions in cell factory utilization rates. Short-term price support exists, but sustained increases depend on terminal demand and supply adjustments.
Module demand has improved modestly compared with earlier periods but remains generally weak. Entering the fourth quarter, domestic utility-scale project activity has picked up, boosting deliveries of large-size module orders. Overseas orders from the Middle East are also entering delivery phases, and some producers are pushing year-end volume targets, collectively improving overall module demand and lifting production schedules for certain manufacturers. Still, both domestic utility-scale and overseas demand is projected to remain relatively flat in October. With Indian market orders expected to wind down around the end of October and evolving external trade policies, incremental overseas demand may stay limited, and domestic utility-scale project additions for October are also constrained. On pricing, the domestic module market stays sluggish, with leading players quoting around 0.70 to 0.72 yuan per watt for TOPCon modules, while second-tier suppliers mostly price below 0.68 yuan per watt, and actual transactions remain scarce. Given low acceptance of price hikes among domestic end projects, low-priced modules continue to circulate. Improved downstream phased demand and rebounding cell prices offer some short-term support for module pricing, but with limited overall demand growth in October, meaningful price recovery remains difficult. Going forward, the market will watch policy implementation against anti-involution measures and shifts in domestic and overseas terminal demand.
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