Goldman Sachs stated in a report on Tuesday that renewed disruptions to oil exports from the Persian Gulf could continue to exert upward pressure on crude prices in the near term. The bank added that even if geopolitical tensions ease, the next phase of supply restoration remains uncertain and could proceed more slowly than the initial rebound.
The investment bank estimates that following a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding in June, oil exports from the Gulf region had recovered to over 80% of pre-conflict levels. However, after a new wave of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, exports over the past week have fallen back below 50%, or approximately 11 million barrels per day (bpd). Goldman Sachs highlighted the two-way risks to its Brent crude price forecast, which is $80 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 for 2027.
The bank indicated that if the recovery of crude exports from the Gulf region continues to stall, Brent crude prices could surpass $110 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.
Conversely, the report noted that if regional tensions ease and production recovers faster than anticipated, oil prices could fall into the $60 range by year-end.
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