Abstract
Goldman Sachs will release its quarterly results on October 21, 2025, before-market; this preview synthesizes last quarter’s performance, the current quarter’s internal forecasts, and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations for January 15, 2026.
Market Forecast
Consensus and the company’s forecast framework indicate Goldman Sachs expects current-quarter revenue of 14.36 billion, EBIT of 5.56 billion, and adjusted EPS of $11.45, with year-over-year growth of 15.92% for revenue, 74.29% for EBIT, and 39.26% for EPS. The outlook implies sustained margin resilience, though explicit guidance for gross profit margin and net profit margin is not provided in the forecast data; year-over-year strength is driven by more favorable markets and higher client activity. Core business momentum centers on interest-related earnings, market-making, and advisory fees as capital markets remain active. The most promising segment is market-making, supported by improved trading conditions and wider client engagement, with last quarter revenue of 3.87 billion and signs of improving year-over-year comparables.
Last Quarter Review
Goldman Sachs reported last-quarter revenue of 15.18 billion, gross profit margin of 83.07%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.10 billion, net profit margin of 27.61%, and adjusted EPS of $12.25, with year-over-year growth of 45.83% for EPS. Net profit grew quarter-on-quarter by 10.07%, reflecting stronger operating leverage and a favorable market backdrop. Main business highlights: interest income of 20.82 billion, market-making revenue of 3.87 billion, investment management revenue of 2.95 billion, investment banking revenue of 2.66 billion, commission and fees of 1.11 billion, and other principal transactions of 743.00 million; interest expense was 16.97 billion.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business Trajectory
Interest-related earnings remain central to Goldman Sachs’s income statement features, shaping overall revenue quality and margin continuity. With last quarter interest income at 20.82 billion against interest expense of 16.97 billion, net interest dynamics suggest a solid spread that supports the 83.07% gross margin baseline. Management’s current-quarter revenue estimate of 14.36 billion, alongside forecast EPS of $11.45, implies a more normalized pace of activity but still above prior-year levels given the 15.92% revenue growth. In practice, sustained client cash balances, resilient funding profiles, and active securities financing should keep net interest outcomes stable, though modestly sensitive to rate-path expectations and funding costs. As macro conditions oscillate around disinflation and curve shifts, the bank’s capacity to balance deposit costs against asset yields and trading-related financing needs will be a key determinant of this quarter’s reported margins.
Most Promising Segment: Market-Making
Market-making showed last quarter revenue of 3.87 billion, reflecting robust client flow in both fixed income and equities as volatility normalized around digestible ranges. For the current quarter, the revenue forecast uplift and EPS trajectory suggest continued strength in trading businesses, reinforced by healthy bid-ask dynamics and improved inventory turnover. Liquidity has remained sufficient across major venues, while client hedging and asset rotation create opportunities for spread capture. The primary tailwind is a supportive environment for macro and equity derivatives, with cross-asset dispersion strategies maintaining commissions and facilitating flow that drives revenue. Potential headwinds include episodic risk-off periods that can compress spreads and reduce client activity; however, diversified market-making across products and regions typically stabilizes quarterly outcomes.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock’s near-term performance will likely hinge on the interplay between capital markets activity, advisory pipelines, and trading revenues. The internal forecast for EBIT at 5.56 billion, rising 74.29% year-over-year, signals high operating leverage if revenue momentum converts into fee capture and efficient risk management. Equity and debt issuance windows, alongside M&A advisory fees, can materially enhance fee-based income; these flows often correlate with near-term EPS beats or misses. Another driver is the balance of net interest income against funding costs; modest shifts in short-end rates or credit spreads can widen or narrow net interest margins, compounding impacts on GAAP net profit margin. Investors will also monitor any updates on expense discipline and compensation accruals, as these scale with performance and can influence operating efficiency metrics. A confirmed cadence of client activity, restrained credit provisions, and aligned VaR levels would support the constructive EPS forecast and frame any upside to consensus.
Analyst Opinions
The majority of recent institutional commentary leans constructive on Goldman Sachs’s near-term earnings trajectory, with bullish views outweighing cautious stances based on improving trading conditions and steadier advisory pipelines. Notably, several large sell-side institutions have highlighted the bank’s sensitivity to capital markets breadth and trading recovery as a near-term positive, emphasizing that the uplift in EPS and EBIT forecasts aligns with stronger client engagement and normalized volatility. The supportive camp expects beats driven by market-making and advisory activity, while caution is reserved for potential episodic market drawdowns and rate-path uncertainty. Overall, prevailing views tilt toward expecting Goldman Sachs to deliver above-year-ago results with balanced margin retention, supported by the bank’s diversified revenue mix and operational discipline.
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