On Friday, May 15th, during the early Asian session, spot gold opened with a slight increase before experiencing a decline, currently trading around $4,620 with a drop of 0.7%. The gold market opened at $4,692 yesterday. The price initially rallied to $4,707 before quickly falling back to $4,668, then surged strongly again. The daily high touched $4,718 before a sharp pullback in late trading. The daily low settled at $4,644, and the session ultimately closed at $4,651, forming a medium bearish candlestick with a very long upper shadow.
Key Factors: Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East persist, with the Strait of Hormuz largely in a state of blockade, keeping oil prices elevated. U.S. crude oil once climbed to $102 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $104 per barrel. Although Iranian state media reported the passage of about 30 vessels through the strait, with some Chinese ships permitted transit, rumors of attacks and the overall blockade situation continue to cast a shadow over energy supply prospects.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.38% on Thursday, reaching a two-week high, directly increasing the holding cost of dollar-denominated gold. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields, after an earlier surge, experienced a slight pullback but overall remain at relatively high levels. Market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy have shifted significantly. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 53.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged by December, with only a 1.7% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut, while the probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike has risen to 44.7%.
A meeting between China and the United States has become a market focus. The discussions covered a wide range of issues, including trade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The meeting between the leaders of both countries concluded smoothly yesterday, with both sides signaling a positive intent to enhance communication and properly resolve differences. Market expectations for an improvement in Sino-U.S. relations have significantly warmed.
From a technical perspective, looking at the gold daily chart, gold closed lower overnight influenced by the dollar's rebound and news developments. The price has currently fallen back below the moving average band, recording three consecutive bearish daily closes. For the day, resistance is noted around the moving average band in the $4,660-4,680 area, while support can initially be watched around the key $4,600 level.
Combined with the gold one-hour chart, the hourly moving averages are crossed and diverging downward, contributing to a continuation of the bearish sentiment after today's open. The price has currently broken below the short-term trendline support at $4,625. Intraday support may first be tested around $4,600. A technical oversold rebound could occur here, but it depends on whether the price can reclaim levels above the previous low of $4,640-4,650.
Trading Recommendations for Today: Long positions: An extremely light attempt at a short-term long trade can be considered near $4,600. This trade must be executed with an extremely light position, with a strict stop loss at $4,585. The target is only to reduce and exit around $4,640. Short positions: For intraday short trades, consider a light position on a rebound test of resistance around $4,640-4,650. Use a unified stop loss at $4,665. The target looks down to $4,610-4,600, with a portion potentially held to watch for $4,560/4,550.
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