Abstract
Apollo Global Management LLC will report quarterly results on February 09, 2026 Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to year-over-year growth in revenue and adjusted EPS supported by resilient fee earnings and sustained momentum in retirement services.Market Forecast
Based on current-quarter forecasts, the market expects Apollo Global Management LLC to deliver revenue of $5.37 billion, up 23.13% year over year, EBIT of $1.56 billion, up 3.92% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $2.05, up 8.31% year over year. Forecasts do not explicitly include margin guidance; consensus anticipates steady profitability anchored by fee-related earnings and spread income from its retirement activities.The main business is projected to be led by retirement services and fee-based asset management, with revenue stability reinforced by spread income and management fees. The most promising segment remains retirement services, which generated $8.34 billion last quarter and underpinned the company-level revenue growth of 26.37% year over year.
Last Quarter Review
In the last reported quarter, Apollo Global Management LLC delivered revenue of $9.82 billion, a gross profit margin of 41.91%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.74 billion, a net profit margin of 17.79%, and adjusted EPS of $2.17, with adjusted EPS up 17.30% year over year and revenue up 26.37% year over year.A key financial highlight was the acceleration in profitability, with net profit increasing 175.56% quarter over quarter, supported by EBIT of $1.57 billion and better-than-anticipated operating leverage. Main business performance was concentrated in retirement services at $8.34 billion (84.86% of revenue) and asset management at $1.49 billion (15.14% of revenue), together driving the 26.37% year-over-year revenue growth.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Retirement Services: spread income resilience and balance-sheet earnings
Retirement services is expected to remain the earnings anchor this quarter, with spread income benefiting from disciplined asset-liability management, sustained origination volumes, and stable credit performance. The prior quarter’s revenue contribution of $8.34 billion illustrates the scale of this business, which in turn supports the projected adjusted EPS of $2.05 and EBIT of $1.56 billion. The near-term shape of yield curves and credit spreads will be critical for net investment income capture and hedging effectiveness, but current forecasts imply a steady backdrop that should support year-over-year revenue expansion of 23.13%.Investor attention will likely center on new money rates and the aggregate portfolio yield relative to liability costs, given that small changes in investment spreads can translate into notable earnings variability. Within this framework, management’s focus on high-quality, senior-secured asset origination and disciplined funding should help mitigate mark-to-market noise and maintain a predictable earnings stream. Put simply, if credit spreads remain supportive and policyholder behavior remains stable, retirement services should continue to deliver a predictable contribution to both EBIT and adjusted EPS even if market volatility rises.
Another determinant of quarterly performance will be funding agreement activity and retail annuity flows, which influence the pace of asset inflows and the mix of liabilities. Strong flows into spread-based products in the prior quarter, combined with a diversified origination pipeline, provide a constructive setup into this print. While there is no explicit margin guidance, the last quarter’s gross margin of 41.91% and net profit margin of 17.79% provide a reference for investors assessing run-rate profitability. The path from revenue of $5.37 billion to adjusted EPS of $2.05 this quarter will, in large measure, be set by the stability of investment spreads and any variability in hedging outcomes.
Asset Management: fee momentum, deployment cadence, and performance fees
Fee-related earnings in the asset management arm should be supported by stable management fees and prudent deployment, even as performance fees tend to be episodic. Last quarter’s $1.49 billion revenue contribution from asset management demonstrates a sizable and diversified fee base, which generally provides ballast against capital-market swings. The consensus EBIT forecast of $1.56 billion for the consolidated business embeds a cautious view on performance fees, which can be sensitive to realizations, valuations, and exits that are uneven quarter to quarter.The primary watchpoints for this quarter include: net inflows into fee-paying AUM, the pace of capital deployment, and any commentary on gross realized performance fees. Management fee stability should support visibility in the EPS estimate of $2.05 even if performance fee recognition is limited this quarter. Beyond that, the durability of origination in private credit and structured solutions is likely to remain a positive indicator for full-year earnings power, though the near-term translation into performance fees can vary with market windows for realizations.
Operational leverage within the asset management platform remains another factor. If fundraising and deployments continue to trend positively, fee-related margins may show incremental expansion, complementing spread-based earnings from retirement services. While no explicit margin forecast is provided, last quarter’s company-wide gross profit margin of 41.91% suggests a resilient cost structure that could allow fee revenue growth to flow through to profits efficiently.
Stock price swing factors this quarter: earnings mix, spread dynamics, and exit activity
Into the print, the stock is likely to be influenced by the mix between spread income from retirement services and fee-related earnings from asset management, as each has distinct sensitivities and valuation implications. If the quarter sees steady spreads and disciplined liability growth, the retirement services contribution could offset potential variability in performance fees, anchoring the consensus EPS of $2.05 and revenue of $5.37 billion. Conversely, a weaker spread environment or mark-to-market noise could skew results below the earnings mix implied by forecasts, even if fee revenues hold firm.Credit performance will also matter, not necessarily through realized losses but via the market’s interpretation of forward risk conditions as reflected in qualitative commentary and portfolio metrics. Absent surprise credit developments, modest quarter-over-quarter changes to portfolio yields or hedging costs could still be sufficient to move the market’s perception of run-rate earnings, given the capital intensity of spread businesses. For asset management, the timing and magnitude of exits can swing performance fees; while these fees are inherently episodic, any incremental positive realization could provide upside to EBIT relative to the $1.56 billion consensus.
Beyond the quarter’s reported numbers, investors may also focus on capital deployment updates, pace of investment origination, and any guidance related to management fees and pipeline visibility. Together, these factors will shape expectations for the durability of the projected $2.05 adjusted EPS and the sustainability of year-over-year growth. With last quarter’s net profit margin at 17.79% and QoQ net profit growth of 175.56% serving as a recent backdrop, stability in margins and revenue mix will be scrutinized to validate the 23.13% revenue growth expectation.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent research views gathered in the last six months, the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions is 100.00% bullish, reflecting a cluster of Buy ratings and supportive commentary on earnings durability and growth visibility. Notably, TD Cowen (analyst William Katz) maintains a Buy rating with a $164.00 price target, emphasizing resilient cash generation and the consistency of fee-related and spread-based earnings streams. Barclays (analyst Benjamin Budish) reiterates Buy ratings with targets at $159.00 and $147.00, citing constructive near-term earnings setup and confidence in forward deployment and management fee stability. Citi (analyst Christopher Allen) also maintains a Buy rating with a $150.00 target, pointing to robust operating momentum and the potential for continued earnings compounding.The common thread among these bullish stances is the expectation that the combination of steady management fees and disciplined spread income should allow Apollo Global Management LLC to navigate quarter-to-quarter market variability without significant impairment to run-rate earnings power. Analysts generally frame retirement services as an earnings stabilizer, while asset management provides potential upside through origination scale and selective performance fee recognition. This alignment supports consensus for current-quarter revenue of $5.37 billion, EBIT of $1.56 billion, and adjusted EPS of $2.05, with the year-over-year growth rates of 23.13%, 3.92%, and 8.31%, respectively, presenting a balanced outlook that favors moderate upside if spreads remain conducive and deployments proceed as planned.
Bullish views also flag potential catalysts that can strengthen the earnings outlook across the year. These include continued traction in origination and funding within retirement services, incremental clarity on management fee growth, and any signs that market conditions are improving for realizations that would bolster performance fees. In this context, last quarter’s revenue of $9.82 billion, gross profit margin of 41.91%, GAAP net profit of $1.74 billion, net profit margin of 17.79%, and adjusted EPS of $2.17 illustrate a solid base from which modest growth can continue. Strategically, analysts expect the company’s operating discipline and balance-sheet stewardship to support EPS resilience around the $2.05 mark for this quarter even if performance fee timing is uneven.
In sum, the majority of institutional commentary anticipates that Apollo Global Management LLC will meet or modestly exceed its consensus framework for the quarter, supported by stable fee-related earnings and predictable spread income, with upside potential if equity market conditions offer windows for realizations. The uniformity of Buy ratings and supportive targets—$164.00, $159.00, $150.00, and $147.00—underscores a prevailing market view that the current-quarter backdrop is constructive. With retirement services contributing $8.34 billion last quarter and asset management contributing $1.49 billion, the company enters the print positioned to deliver on revenue of $5.37 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.05, while investors monitor spreads, fee momentum, and exit timing as the decisive swing factors.
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