On January 26, COMEX gold continued its upward trajectory, experiencing a slight pullback at the close to settle at $5004.8 per ounce, marking a gain of 0.50%. Domestically, SHFE gold fluctuated at high levels during the night session, closing at 1148.14 yuan per gram, an increase of 1.49%.
A report from the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed that durable goods orders surged by 5.3%, with the previous month's figure revised down to a 2.1% decline; this data represents the largest increase in six months, driven by orders for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment. On the news front, data from Polymarket indicates that market bets on the probability of a new U.S. government shutdown before the end of January have soared to 78%, a stark contrast to the less than 10% probability observed last Friday.
On the geopolitical front, the U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East and is set to conduct several days of readiness exercises in the region; the U.S. military's deployment around Iran has led markets to anticipate a potential resurgence of geopolitical turbulence. While the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting this week is expected to result in a low probability of a January interest rate cut, market anticipation has already factored this in, thereby reducing its potential impact on gold. However, with former President Trump continuing to stir controversy regarding Greenland and the ongoing tensions with Iran, geopolitical risks are escalating rather than subsiding. Furthermore, market wavering confidence in the U.S. dollar's credibility serves as a powerful catalyst for gold, making it difficult for the short-term fervor for the safe-haven asset to diminish. The outlook for gold remains bullish in the near term, with attention focused on the confirmation of the next Federal Reserve Chair.
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