- The holiday quarter is shaping up to be a tough one for Apple due to supply issues. Should Apple stock investors worry?
The news flow continues to be predominantly bearish for Apple stock and its investors. So far this post-Thanksgiving week, shares have already dipped 5%, a good bit more than the S&P 500’s more modest decline.
The culprit remains the same of the past few weeks: the shortage of iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max devices. Could this be the beginning of a decline in share price that persists through December, or just a bump in the road that AAPL investors should largely ignore?
Too few iPhone 14 Pro to sell
Most recently, Bloomberg reported that Apple’s iPhone Pro sales could take a hit to the tune of 6 million units this year.
ItauBBA’s Thiago Kapulskis is just about the only analyst on the Street with an underperform rating on Apple stock. At least so far, Kapulskis has proven right in his caution toward iPhone unit sales estimates in the holiday quarter. In his most recent note, he said:
“This reduction of 6 million units, if it occurs, represents ~7% reduction in relation to Apple’s initial expectations. This, in our view, increases the risk for estimates, especially as it is mainly about the high-end models (iPhone Pro), which is where the market is more focused.”
More upbeat is Webush’s Dan Ives, who acknowledges the “absolute body blow” that this supply issue has been – but he sees the silver lining. According to the analyst, demand for the iPhone remains robust, which should help to support sales past the holiday period.
My take on Apple stock vs. iPhone worries
To me, the market is not wrong in its bearish knee-jerk reaction to the news coming out of China. The holiday quarter is the big one for Apple, when the Cupertino company tends to generate about one-third of its full-year revenues.
Keep in mind that, in the market, there aren’t only long-term investors exchanging AAPL shares. Traders making short-term bets are an important diving force as well. As it stands, Apple seems to be facing a rough fiscal Q1 quarter, and the January earnings print could disappoint.
However, as the reader probably knows, I think that Apple is a stock to own, and not trade – an idea that CNBC’s Jim Cramer has also defended. Therefore, I try to put this quarter’s supply issues in the context of Apple’s long-term prospects.
Let’s do some math: 6 million fewer units of the iPhone Pro sold in fiscal Q1, at an ASP of $1,100, adds up to $6.6 billion in lost or delayed sales. This figure represents about 5% of Apple’s total quarter revenues in the holiday period last year.
If I assume gross margin of 35%, which is consistent with Apple’s product margin as a whole, the impact to the bottom line could be $1.9 billion after tax, or 12 cents per share. Assign a multiple of 25 times, and we are looking at impact to share price of $3, which is next to nothing.
And keep in mind: 6 million fewer iPhone 14 Pro units sold in the quarter does not mean lost sales, necessarily. At least a good chunk of this total could merely be pushed forward, with revenues finally being recognized in the March 2023 quarter.
The point is that, in my opinion, Apple’s current supply issues should not be too big of a concern in the grand scheme of things – unless one assumes that this will be a recurring problem well into next year.
In a nutshell: it makes sense to me that Apple stock is under pressure for now. But if the share price continues to decline, the dip could prove to be an opportunity for long-term investors to buy the stock for cheaper and realize the potential gains over time.
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