For the bond market, consider maintaining a neutral duration, with subsequent opportunities likely to stem from monetary policy easing; for A-shares, consider focusing on growth and pro-cyclical sectors. Maintain a neutral view on crude oil, while remaining bullish on gold.
Internationally, the US December non-farm payrolls were slightly weaker, with a modest improvement in the unemployment rate, alleviating recession concerns and boosting expectations for no rate cut in January. The US Dollar Index rose to 99.
Domestically, December inflation continued its recovery, with the CPI rising further. Industrial consumer goods, including gold jewelry, continued to support the year-on-year core CPI. Boosted by rising non-ferrous metal prices, the year-on-year decline in the PPI narrowed.
Regarding market strategy, in the bond market, yields rose last week. Although the new redemption regulations landed smoothly, the equity market's "spring躁动" (spring rally) boosted risk appetite, and strong commodity performance also weighed on bonds. The short end shows relative certainty due to monetary easing by the central bank and allocation demand from wealth management products after deposit shifts. Trend opportunities in the long end still require a wait for the阶段性 (phase) pullback in risk appetite boosted by the AI narrative. Consider maintaining a neutral duration and emphasize the allocation value of high-coupon assets and long-duration assets.
For A-shares, the spring rally has gradually unfolded over the past week. Historical experience shows that past spring rallies were generally driven by three factors: loose monetary policy, a significant improvement in growth expectations, or major event catalysts. The current baseline for January is that while there is no clear expectation for growth improvement, the Renminbi remains strong, and there is some anticipation for industrial catalysts, suggesting this spring rally may still have relatively strong drivers. Structurally, past spring rally experiences indicate that market gains have historically concentrated in technology growth and some pro-cyclical sectors.
For Hong Kong stocks, the market remains in a phase of "benefiting from liquidity + weak fundamentals," with the key being whether price levels improve by 2026. Renminbi appreciation helps improve Hong Kong's liquidity environment, while a comprehensive beta uptick for Hong Kong stocks relies on an improvement in domestic growth conditions. Beyond reasonable quantitative growth, more importantly, it depends on price improvements represented by the PPI.
Regarding crude oil, from a global economic fundamental perspective, demand remains weak, supply continues to increase, inventories are accumulating, and prices remain under pressure. Potential US military action against Venezuela may increase short-term oil price volatility, while medium to long-term releases of crude production capacity could depress prices.
For gold, from a short-term perspective, as Sino-US tariff friction temporarily eases and Trump's policy focus gradually shifts from trade to domestic affairs, uncertainty is decreasing. Coupled with high short-term crowding in gold, its risk premium may gradually收敛 (converge) over the coming period, and the pace of gold price increases might slow. The medium to long-term development trend remains看好 (favored). (Risk Warning: Recent gold price volatility has intensified, increasing market risk. Investors should monitor market changes, enhance risk prevention awareness, and invest rationally based on their financial situation and risk tolerance.)
Disclaimer: The information in this report is sourced from publicly available materials, and our company makes no guarantee regarding its accuracy or completeness. Under no circumstances shall the information or opinions expressed in this report constitute the actual investment results of our company, nor any investment advice to investors.
Unless otherwise specified, data in this report is sourced from Wind, Bloomberg, or Bosera Fund.
The copyright of this report belongs to Bosera Asset Management Co., Ltd.
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