Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its 2026 copper price forecast on Tuesday, projecting an average annual price of $12,650 per ton, while maintaining its expectation of a 490,000-ton surplus in the copper market this year.
However, the firm warned that prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sulfuric acid shortage, posing risks to copper supply.
Goldman Sachs indicated that shipping disruptions, combined with China's decision to ban sulfuric acid exports effective May 1, could tighten the market supply of this key raw material for copper production.
Sulfur and sulfuric acid are essential inputs for the solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) process, which accounts for 17% of global copper supply.
The bank noted that the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile are the most vulnerable to disruptions in the sulfur supply chain.
Military actions involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran have already impacted energy and other supplies, as Iran has effectively blockaded the critical shipping route of the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. President Trump stated on Tuesday that he does not intend to extend the current ceasefire agreement, adding that U.S. forces are "ready to act" if negotiations fail.
Companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo currently maintain two to three months of inventory, but Goldman Sachs estimates that if supply chain delays persist into late May or June, the country’s 2026 copper output could be reduced by approximately 125,000 tons.
Under Goldman’s pessimistic scenario, a slowdown in global economic growth could reduce copper demand by 140,000 tons, offsetting the impact of the aforementioned supply cuts.
The bank further noted that if China’s sulfuric acid export ban remains in place for the full year, 200,000 tons of copper output in Chile could be at risk—equivalent to 1% of global supply. In 2025, about one-third of Chile’s sulfuric acid is expected to be imported from China.
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