European natural gas futures have recovered after hitting a 20-month low, as traders assess the impact of slowing liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows on regional supply balances. Since December, LNG imports at key Northwestern European and Italian ports have shown a slight decline compared to the previous month.
Despite mild weather curbing heating demand, Europe still needs to attract steady fuel inflows, keeping gas prices within a relatively narrow range this week. "Given low inventories, Europe must continue purchasing LNG this winter," wrote RBC analysts Adnan Dhanani, Biraj Borkhataria, and Victoria McCulloch in a report. They noted these factors "leave room for modest price increases in Q1," though bearish sentiment persists amid rising global supply.
Weather forecasts indicate above-average temperatures for the rest of December, though some projections suggest colder conditions may emerge in January. Storage levels remain below historical norms, with current gas inventories at 72% capacity—compared to a five-year average of 81%—though withdrawal rates have recently slowed.
At the time of writing, the ICE Dutch TTF January 2026 gas futures contract rose 1.3% to €26.96 per megawatt-hour, after hitting its lowest level since April 2024 in the previous session.
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