On March 19, the market experienced a full day of volatile adjustments, with all three major indices declining over 1%. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below the 4000-point mark during the session.
Sector-wise, green power and computing-power coordination concepts bucked the downward trend, while computing power leasing saw repeated activity. The oil and gas sector also performed well. On the downside, non-ferrous metals led the declines, and the steel sector weakened.
Nearly 5,000 stocks fell across the market. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 2.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 64.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
Influenced by an overnight plunge in U.S. stocks, Asian markets generally opened lower and continued to fall today, with A-shares unable to escape the downtrend.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.39%, settling at 4006.55 points.
During the session, the index approached the 4000-point level multiple times without breaking through until 14:44, when it briefly fell below for the first time since the beginning of the year. It recovered minutes later amid fluctuations.
In terms of advancing versus declining stocks, 4,955 stocks declined across the market today, marking the highest single-day count this year.
This indicates that, following the sentiment low point on Tuesday, March 16, another freeze in market sentiment has emerged. A "second freeze" is often viewed as a stronger signal for a short-term rebound.
Since the start of March, the market has shown resilience against external disturbances, repeatedly testing lows and recovering. However, the K-line实体 has indeed been gradually declining, particularly over the last six days (from March 12 to date), suggesting a relatively full release of risk.
The question arises: Could today's intraday low of 3994.17 points for the Shanghai Composite be the bottom for the year?
Judging by the multiple sharp intraday recoveries, the 4000-point level is clearly considered a significant psychological barrier by many investors.
However, referencing last year's market performance during volatile periods, integer thresholds like 3900 and 4000 points are fluid—they can be breached in either direction. Their primary impact is on sentiment, amplifying fluctuations and筹码交换, as seen in today's late session.
Looking slightly lower, the Shanghai Composite's 120-day moving average (approximately 3992 points) and the gap left by the跳空高开 on January 5 this year (approximately 3977-3983 points) remain technical support levels.
Therefore, as discussed in recent updates, probing support levels often presents opportunities for左侧 trading. However, a "left-side" trend implies that even lower prices might emerge in the short term. If右侧 trading is your comfort zone, it may be better to wait for a significant rebound before participating.
A Hualong Securities research report stated that despite geopolitical disturbances, several favorable factors continue to support stable market operation.
First is economic resilience. In terms of investment, the start of the "16th Five-Year Plan" period has prompted various sectors to seize opportunities, promoting the commencement of major projects and driving an investment recovery.
Second is政策稳预期. The 2026 Government Work Report proposed持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革, further improving the mechanism for medium- and long-term capital entry into the market, and enhancing investor protection systems.
Third is the gradual pricing-in of uncertain factors by the market.
Looking ahead, Debon Securities believes the A-share market may continue its structural trends. From a macroeconomic perspective, China's economy is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, with持续加大的政策支持 providing fundamental support for the market. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Iran conflicts has increased external uncertainties, raising risks of a global economic slowdown and weighing on market sentiment.
Regarding market style, Debon expects further divergence between value and growth styles. Value sectors with low valuations and high dividends may demonstrate relative resilience, while high-valuation, high-volatility growth sectors could face significant adjustment pressure. Furthermore, the密集披露期 of listed companies' annual reports in late March may bring additional pressure if performance falls short of expectations. Policy developments, including industrial policy adjustments and fiscal/monetary policy动向, will also significantly impact relevant sectors.
In today's session, energy sectors like oil and gas, natural gas, and coal ultimately resisted the pattern of高开低走, leading gains with a late-session rally against the broader trend.
China Securities Co., Ltd. noted that crude oil, as an irreplaceable strategic physical asset, possesses not only inflation-resistant resilience but also exhibits characteristics of wide fluctuations or a rising price中枢 superior to general financial assets during stagflation. The investment logic for the crude oil sector continues to evolve amid restrained capital expenditure and sustained high oil price levels, with oil companies increasingly transforming into dividend assets characterized by "strong free cash flow + high dividends + ongoing share buybacks."
Calculations by Changjiang Securities suggest that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to an annualized increase in global thermal coal demand for power generation by 84.86 million tons. If China's coal chemical plants operate at full capacity, this alone could boost domestic coal consumption by nearly 50 million tons.
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