Goldman Sachs has released a research report stating that non-auto personal insurance is expected to become a potential growth driver for PICC P&C (02328) in terms of premiums and underwriting profit, with the company targeting to grow non-auto personal insurance premiums to over RMB 100 billion within the next five years; the investment bank maintains a "Buy" rating on PICC P&C with a 12-month target price of HK$19.7; it also maintains a "Buy" rating on PICC GROUP (01339) H-shares with a target price of HK$6.7, while giving PICC GROUP A-shares (601319.SH) a "Sell" rating with a target price of RMB 6.2.
PICC GROUP and PICC P&C recently jointly held an Investor Day in Suzhou, where management gave presentations and held Q&A sessions on non-auto personal insurance development, technology insurance, health insurance and health management services, as well as investment asset allocation.
PICC P&C stated that non-auto personal insurance premiums reached RMB 55.8 billion in 2025, and the company aims to grow non-auto personal insurance premiums to over RMB 100 billion within the next five years. Non-auto personal insurance premiums grew from RMB 19.1 billion in 2020 to RMB 55.8 billion, and continued to increase by 16% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026, accounting for 97% of PICC P&C's incremental premiums during the same period. Management views personal non-auto insurance as a second growth curve, targeting premium doubling to nearly RMB 100 billion during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
The investment bank assumes a combined ratio of 95%, estimating that non-auto personal insurance contributes over 15% of total underwriting profit, and based on the RMB 100 billion premium target, this could rise to 20% by fiscal year 2030. The investment bank also noted that under an optimistic scenario, technology development-related insurance premiums could reach RMB 10 billion during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period; management remains positive on the long-term outlook for health insurance and reiterated its commitment to stable and sustainable dividend growth, targeting a gradual increase in the group's dividend payout ratio to approximately 30% under the new accounting standards.
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