CITIC Securities: Balancing Domestic and Overseas Opportunities The recent Central Economic Work Conference reaffirmed the focus on expanding domestic circulation, aligning with last year's stance. However, market expectations and valuations for domestic and overseas demand sectors diverge significantly from 2024. Last year, investors were cautious about external demand but optimistic about domestic demand, yet overseas demand outperformed. This year, while overseas exposure remains favored, confidence in domestic demand is lacking. Next year, surpassing overseas demand expectations may prove challenging, but domestic catalysts are emerging.
Overseas-exposed stocks show strong earnings delivery but limited valuation upside, whereas domestic demand sectors, though currently subdued, could rebound with unexpected improvements. Investors should target hybrids—firms with overseas foundations but domestic growth catalysts.
Guotai Haitong: Key Window for Spring Rally Positioning We are more bullish than consensus. Some misinterpret policy shifts from "extraordinary" to "cross-cycle" as less proactive, but 2025’s "extraordinary" measures addressed tail risks. The 2026 agenda emphasizes "consolidating economic recovery," with proactive fiscal policies, stabilizing investment, and reviving property inventory clearance. Incremental policies, including subsidies and front-loaded "16th Five-Year Plan" projects, signal a strong start. With subdued activity and sliding property sales, policy expectations may rise. Stable RMB could pave the way for PBOC rate cuts in early 2026. Year-end rebalancing and institutional inflows may boost liquidity, kickstarting a rally.
Now is the time to position for spring gains. Large-cap growth (tech trends) and value (insurance allocations) may lead. Favorites: tech, financials, and consumer sectors.
CITIC Construction Investment: Year-End Rally Ahead After a prolonged AH-market correction since September, sentiment is cautious. Recent data and events met or exceeded expectations. Bullish fundamentals—structural opportunities and reform policies—remain intact. With adjustments largely complete and fund rankings settled, a year-end surge is likely.
Mid-term picks: metals (catalysts) and AI computing, themed around commercial space (supplemented by nuclear fusion and robotics). HK-listed internet giants and biotech also appeal. Key sectors: non-ferrous metals, space, AI, robotics, fusion, biotech, and finance.
BOC Securities: A-Shares on Upward Trajectory Policy shifts from "support" to "quality growth" stabilize macro expectations. Market drivers will transition from policy/ liquidity to earnings. A-shares are in a "bull market pause," with 2026 inflows and profit recovery (price rebounds, demand revival, innovation) fueling a broad rally.
Near-term, Fed succession and domestic policy implementation are focal points. As geopolitical risks ease and Sino-US policies clarify, year-end positioning may start early. Focus: tech + "anti-involution" themes.
Industrial Securities: Structural Opportunities to Diversify Fed and domestic policy clarity sets a pro-risk asset stage. Year-end structures reflect 2026 earnings expectations. From tech dominance this year, sectors may rally collectively next year. The Work Conference’s "growth + transformation" focus enriches market narratives. Key areas: AI+, anti-involution, new energy, and service consumption.
Everbright Securities: Year-End Rally Likely Policy support underpins optimism: economic policies will sustain growth, bolstering markets. Historical trends show strong starts to Five-Year Plans, suggesting 2026 continuity.
Sector picks: TMT and advanced manufacturing; defensives/consumers if volatility rises.
Guojin Securities: Economy Marches On Market swings won’t halt real-economy momentum. Despite AI stock volatility and rate-cut uncertainties, investment and easing directions are clear. Focus on fundamentals, not pricing noise.
Top picks: 1. Industrial resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil) benefiting from AI spend and global manufacturing recovery. 2. Non-bank financials (insurance, brokers) with capital expansion and asset rebounds. 3. Chinese exports (grid equipment, renewables, machinery) and manufacturing revivals (chemicals, pigments). 4. Consumption recovery (aviation, hotels, duty-free, F&B) on capital inflows and tourism.
China Galaxy Securities: Fast Rotation Nears Year-End Fed cuts met expectations, but divisions widened. The Work Conference prioritized domestic demand ("insufficient demand" as key challenge) and innovation, with capital market reforms highlighted. Near-term, expect swift rotations; eye 2026 policy and growth themes.
Opportunities: AI, robotics, new energy, fusion, quantum tech, and aerospace under the "16th Five-Year Plan." Manufacturing/resources may profit from anti-involution policies and price rebounds. Consumption and export-driven sectors also appeal.
East Money: Watch External Risks, Await Entry Micro-liquidity may improve gradually, led by insurers and fixed-income+ funds, peaking post-Lunar New Year. Short-term, favor finance/dividends; later, target AI (chips, overseas computing, internet, metals), cyclical turns (new energy), and global plays (biotech).
Cinda Securities: Year-End as Growth Rebound Window Growth sectors remain range-bound. Fed uncertainty, BOJ hikes, and tech adjustments may cap rebounds. Year-end liquidity could spark a rally. Long-term, AI’s evolution suggests early-stage growth bull markets, with mid-cycle volatility. Focus on high-value niches: consumer electronics, gaming, wind, batteries. Upside may come from AI commercialization, edge computing, and power equipment turnarounds.
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