After consecutive days of sharp gains, commercial space concept stocks collectively plummeted on January 13, staging a dramatic reversal from significant rises to heavy losses, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit-down. A total of 14 individual stocks, including Addsino Co.,Ltd. (000547.SZ), China Aerospace Times Electronics Co.,Ltd. (600879.SH), Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.,Ltd. (003009.SZ), and China Satellite Communications Co.,Ltd. (601698.SH), fell by the 10% limit. Among the 71 constituent stocks of the index, 59 experienced price declines, one remained flat, and only 11 managed to advance. Consequently, the Commercial Space Index (8841877.WI) also posted a substantial drop, closing at 23,554.46 points, down 6.15%.
The immediate catalyst for the sector's sharp decline was a concentrated release of risk warnings by over ten related listed companies after market hours on January 12. Among them, Hunan Aerospace Huanyu Communication Technology Co.,Ltd. (688523.SH) and Beijing Leike Defense Technology Co.,Ltd. (002413.SZ) explicitly stated that their stock prices had significantly deviated from market trends, indicating high speculation risks, and warned they might apply for trading suspensions if prices continued to rise abnormally.
Furthermore, the sector leader, China Satellite Communications Co.,Ltd., with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan, announced that as of January 12, its stock price had surged by 160.04% since December 3, 2025. This dramatically outpaced the 40.68% gain of the Shenwan National Defense and Military Industry Index and the 7.42% rise of the Shanghai A-Share Index over the same period. The company highlighted that the "hot potato" effect was very pronounced in its stock, posing a significant risk of a sharp short-term correction.
Several other listed companies indicated that their commercial space businesses were still in the nascent stages, contributing minimally to revenue. For instance, Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.,Ltd. (688636.SH) stated its main business revolves around embedded computers for aircraft and missiles, with commercial space-related products still in the early industrialization phase. Similarly, Beijing Navigation Control Technology Co.,Ltd. (688282.SH) reported its commercial space business remains in the startup stage, generating revenue of only approximately 1.544 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025.
This represents the most intensive wave of risk warnings since the commercial space sector began its new upward trend in late December 2025. As the concept continued to "boil over" in the capital markets, the collective caution from these companies acted like a bucket of cold water, dousing speculative fervor and prompting a sector-wide correction.
However, this correction is not expected to derail the overall upward trajectory of the commercial space industry. Multiple analysts pointed out that short-term stock price volatility does not alter the long-term positive trend, and commercial space still holds vast prospects. An insider from a leading commercial space enterprise elaborated that the industry is currently in a rapid growth phase with immense potential, yet next-generation products like second-stage rockets still face significant challenges in engineering breakthroughs. The common industry path involves first achieving reliable engineering applications before advancing to low-cost, high-reliability mass production stages; a true industry explosion is anticipated after overcoming these milestones.
The market widely views this collective plunge as a necessary correction following excessively overheated sentiment. The rally in the commercial space sector began in November 2025, catalyzed by the National Space Administration's establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Department—China's first national-level regulatory body for the industry. That same month, the administration issued the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)," integrating commercial space into the national space development strategy.
Policy support has accelerated the industry's development. Analysis from China Securities Co., Ltd. suggests the global space sector is undergoing a profound paradigm shift, characterized by accelerated privatization, evolving from state-led exploration towards a new structure of "state-led strategic exploration and market-driven commercial applications." Backed by national policy support and technological breakthroughs, China's commercial space industry is poised to enter a new era.
Benefiting from this, related sectors began a sustained ascent. Data shows that by the close on January 13, the Commercial Space Index reached 23,554.46 points, representing a gain of over 50% since early November 2025 (15,553.03 points). Behind this rapid growth lies significant market speculation. Retail investors and hot money were key drivers of this rally. For example, the shareholder base of leader Addsino Co.,Ltd. skyrocketed by over 350,000 accounts in two months, surging from 165,600 on October 31, 2025, to 515,600 on December 31, 2025, indicating a massive influx of small investors.
On the Dragon and Tiger List (tracking significant trades), leading stocks like Tongyu Communication, Addsino, and Hunan Aerospace Huanyu have frequently appeared over the past three months. Trading seats commonly used by prominent hot money operators, such as those at Guotai Junan Securities Shanghai Changning Jiangsu Road, Guotai Junan Securities Nanjing Taiping South Road, and China Galaxy Securities Dalian Huanghe Road, alongside the retail investor hub known as the "East Money Lhasa Brigade," were frequently active as major buyers and sellers.
A strategist from GF Fund previously cautioned that while policy tailwinds fuel strong expectations for upstream segments like rocket and satellite manufacturing, downstream applications and overall profitability remain in early stages. The core driver of the hype surrounding commercial space stocks is primarily elevated expectations from policy benefits, combined with the typically small market caps of sector companies making them easy targets for capital manipulation, characterizing a typical thematic speculation.
Returning to the industry's fundamentals, the consensus within the sector is that China's commercial space future remains broadly promising. Unlike state-led traditional space programs, commercial space refers to market-driven space activities with viable business models, covering satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and satellite applications. SpaceX's milestone in 2015, successfully landing a first-stage rocket for reuse, drastically reduced launch costs, transitioning traditional space engineering into a potentially profitable commercial era.
Concurrently, on the industrial front, with the accelerated deployment of large satellite constellations leading to significantly increased launch frequency, downstream applications are moving from pilot projects to scaled promotion, gradually clarifying profit models. Policy-wise, the establishment of the Commercial Space Department and the release of the action plan, coupled with密集 (dense) local industrial policies and a full-lifecycle capital support network, further propel the development of China's commercial space sector.
From the perspective of Zhu Keli, founding dean of the Guoyan New Economy Research Institute and dean of the Bay Area Low-Altitude Economy Research Institute, the resonance of technology, industry, and policy is driving China's commercial space transition from rapid growth towards scaled maturity. The core characteristic of this phase is shifting from "single-point breakthroughs" to "whole-chain coordination," and from "technology verification" to "commercial implementation." The industry is moving away from a "burning cash for growth" model towards a virtuous cycle of "reducing costs through scale and increasing revenue through applications."
Similarly, You Guoliang, fund manager of the Great Wall Jiujia Innovation Growth Hybrid Fund, analyzed that from a long-term perspective, the growth space for commercial space is vast. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite internet communication is already entering the implementation phase, with overseas models like Starlink demonstrating profitable, proven business models. Domestic development is equally crucial, with demand also coming from Belt and Road Initiative partner countries. "Furthermore,布局 (layout) in space-based computing power is expected to elevate the 'ceiling' for satellite internet, with both domestic and international giants actively advancing R&D and construction in this area, representing an industry trend resonating both internally and externally," You Guoliang stated.
According to estimates from Kaiyuan Securities Research, as technology iterates and economies of scale emerge, China's annual output value for rocket launches and satellite manufacturing is projected to reach 85 billion yuan by 2030. Commercial space will gradually achieve scaled value, offering long-term investment opportunities for the capital markets.
Therefore, Zhu Keli believes short-term stock fluctuations will not change the industry's long-term upward trend. Companies possessing genuine technological barriers and commercial capabilities will stand out, leading the industry towards high-quality development. You Guoliang similarly pointed out that within genuine major industrial trends, as the industry develops, related sectors and companies will benefit and achieve fundamental improvements; adjustment risks during this process are often phased and short-term. Using AI computing power as an example, mature market progression typically moves from thematic speculation to industrial trend and finally to earnings realization. Thus, the market should focus on whether the industry possesses a truly sustainable development trend and whether there will be concrete progress in implementation.
Focusing on specific companies, You Guoliang emphasized the need to discern the nature of the enterprise itself. It is crucial to differentiate companies that genuinely benefit from the industrial trend, focusing on whether they possess core technological barriers, the relevance of their business to the trend, the feasibility of future earnings realization, and their core position within the industry, while avoiding those merely riding the hype wave without substantive business support.
Comments