On December 27, 2024, MINIEYE (2431.HK), a player in the intelligent driving and L4 unmanned logistics sector, debuted on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In March 2025, it was successfully included in the Stock Connect program, attracting sustained southbound capital inflows that provided ample trading liquidity. Following its listing, the company's stock experienced an upward trajectory, with the market holding high expectations for the commercialization prospects of its autonomous driving and unmanned vehicle businesses. However, starting in November 2025, market trading sentiment gradually weakened, and the stock price entered a sustained correction, with the pace of decline accelerating throughout 2026. To stabilize secondary market expectations and improve the performance of its circulating shares, the company implemented a series of measures during the year, including extending lock-up periods for major shareholders, share purchases by its actual controller and management, on-market share buybacks, and frequent announcements of various industry cooperation projects. Despite these efforts, the valuation recovery in the secondary market proved limited. As the Hang Seng Index's semi-annual review period concluded, the market fully priced in the performance of individual stocks' market capitalization, leading the company to conduct a placement under the existing liquidity conditions to replenish operational funds needed for business R&D and expansion.
In December 2024, MINIEYE, a company in the intelligent driving and L4 unmanned logistics sector, was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its stock price initially trading steadily. In March 2025, the company was successfully included in the Stock Connect target list, with continuous southbound capital inflows providing ample liquidity support. This triggered a major rally, pushing the stock to an all-time high of HKD 39.5, corresponding to a total market capitalization of HKD 14.8 billion, reflecting fully priced market expectations for the commercialization of autonomous driving. However, this period of peak performance was short-lived. Starting in November 2025, MINIEYE's stock price completely reversed course, entering a sustained downward channel, with the decline accelerating throughout 2026. The persistent weakness in the stock price reflects the market's multifaceted assessment of the company's fundamentals, the competitive landscape of the industry, and its long-term, high-investment business model. Financial data clearly highlights the company's operational pressures: for the full year 2025, revenue was RMB 759 million, showing year-on-year growth, but the net loss attributable to the parent company reached RMB 400 million. R&D expenditure for the period was RMB 333 million, accounting for 43.9% of the annual revenue, with high technical investments continuing to erode profits. Cash flow pressures were even more pronounced, with net cash outflow from operating activities reaching RMB 425 million in 2025, indicating a severe lack of internal cash generation capability. Even with institutional and company forecasts for 2026, projecting revenue growth to RMB 1.352 billion, the net loss is still expected to be RMB 234 million, making a near-term inflection point to profitability elusive. This ongoing expectation of high investment continues to suppress the valuation baseline. The scale of the stock price decline is alarming. As of the close on July 30, 2026, MINIEYE was trading at just HKD 4.12, representing a cumulative decline of nearly 90% from its historical high of HKD 39.5, leaving its total market capitalization at less than HKD 2 billion.
Facing the sustained stock price weakness, the company launched a series of intensive and diversified "self-rescue" actions starting in early 2026, attempting to stabilize market expectations. These actions included: management share purchases by the chairman and other executives in the open market to signal confidence; a share buyback program of up to HKD 200 million initiated in January 2026, with cumulative repurchases exceeding HKD 120 million; major shareholders and concert parties voluntarily extending share lock-up periods to alleviate concerns about short-term selling pressure; and since January 2026, the company has announced strategic collaborations with companies like Sterling Tools, CATL, Ideas Group, Tongtu Technology, and Didi Delivery at a frequency of nearly several times per month, covering areas such as unmanned logistics vehicle procurement, localisation in India, intelligent chassis collaboration, and regional market expansion. However, from a practical standpoint, this series of "stock-supporting" measures failed to effectively reverse the stock's downtrend. The market appeared to interpret the company's frequent "self-rescue" actions as a negative signal of "tight cash flow." After brief technical bounces, the stock price continued its slide along the downward channel, indicating deep market skepticism about the company's fundamentals and profitability. Pure capital operations had lost their ability to restore confidence. Adding to market concern, as the stock price continued to plummet and trading volumes shrank, analysis suggested that MINIEYE faces the risk of being removed from the Stock Connect program. Under the Stock Connect rules, if a target stock's price remains persistently low, its market capitalization falls below the removal threshold, or its liquidity consistently fails to meet standards, it may be removed from the list during periodic adjustments.
The deadline for the Hang Seng Index's semi-annual review data is June 30, with the official results of constituent adjustments to be announced in early September. If MINIEYE is removed from the Stock Connect program this time, mainland southbound capital would no longer be able to trade the stock directly. This would lead to a cliff-like drop in the stock's average daily turnover and order book liquidity, making subsequent equity financing more difficult and placement discounts larger. For a company that is continuously burning cash and has a perennial funding gap, the period of Stock Connect inclusion represents a relatively advantageous financing window. This is likely the core logic behind the company's decision to launch another placement in July. Since its listing, the company has frequently utilized equity financing tools: it conducted two conventional placements in July and November 2025, issued consideration shares to acquire assets in May, and launched this latest placement in July 2026. On July 22, 2026, the company disclosed its placement plan: to issue 20,132,400 new H-shares to no fewer than six independent institutions at a price of HKD 6.23 per share, raising a total of approximately HKD 125 million. After deducting related expenses, the net proceeds were about HKD 122 million. The placement price represented a 15% discount to the closing price on the pricing date and a 17% discount to the average price over the preceding five trading days. The high discount reflects the pessimistic view of institutional funds regarding the stock's short-term outlook and liquidity prospects, as they were only willing to take up shares at a significant markdown. Regarding the use of funds, 70% is allocated to the R&D and operational platform upgrades for the unmanned logistics and physical AI businesses, while the remaining 30% is for the iteration of the underlying self-developed platform. On the day following the placement announcement (July 23), MINIEYE's stock price plummeted 16.78% as short-term risk aversion was concentrated. The next day, July 24, the stock fell another 14.75%. The market's concerns are clear: the heavily discounted placement reflects a lack of institutional confidence, and the subscribing institutions may seek to sell their shares for arbitrage later. Combined with expectations of being removed from the Stock Connect program, a large amount of capital chose to exit early to avoid the risk of subsequent liquidity drying up. In July alone, the company's stock price accumulated a decline of over 50%, with the placement news serving as a key catalyst accelerating the valuation decline. Even though the subscribers for this placement are all external independent institutions, the additional supply of shares created by the new issuance still exerts significant downward pressure on the already extremely weak order book. Despite the company's continued execution of overseas vehicle OEM orders and a thousand-unit-level unmanned logistics order, the revenue from business scale is not yet sufficient to cover its high expenses, making it difficult to reverse the loss-making situation in the short term. Market support measures like shareholder lock-ups, executive share purchases, and large-scale buybacks can only temporarily cushion the decline. If the stock is formally removed from the Stock Connect program during the September index review, the stock's liquidity and future refinancing capacity will contract further, and a recovery in the company's valuation will have to wait for an inflection point to profitability driven by the scaling of its unmanned logistics and pre-installed intelligent driving businesses.
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