Domestic insurance stocks in Hong Kong experienced a collective downturn. As of the latest update, China Life (02628) fell 4.14% to HK$32.92, PICC Group (01339) dropped 3.52% to HK$6.56, CPIC (02601) declined 2.41% to HK$37.26, and NCI (01336) decreased 2.1% to HK$58.15. Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that capital market fluctuations in the fourth quarter of 2025, combined with some insurers significantly increasing their equity allocation ratios in the secondary market during the second half of 2025, may temporarily pressure the profit performance of listed insurers in the fourth quarter. The institution forecasts that the net profit attributable to shareholders of A-share listed insurers will grow by 22.7% year-on-year to 4.264 trillion yuan in 2025, though the growth rate is expected to decline by 10.9 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025. Notably, the narrative of deposit migration continues to develop. Speculations about the scale of maturing deposits have surged from 10 trillion yuan to 70 trillion yuan, driven by expectations of accelerated fund reallocation, which could significantly alter the supply-demand dynamics and pricing of various assets. According to a recent Bank of America report, it is estimated that 70%-80% of maturing fixed deposits from households will remain within the banking system, with only about 1 trillion yuan flowing into non-deposit assets. If 500 billion yuan of these funds move into insurance products, it could create noticeable elasticity in life insurance sales.
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