Gold Market Review (Week of April 6): International gold prices fluctuated but closed higher last week. Although finishing above the midline Bollinger Band, prices failed to break through the resistance of the 10-week moving average. Secondary indicators maintained bearish signals, suggesting risks of further consolidation or another decline in the near term. Fundamentally, gold's strength is currently dominated by geopolitical tensions. With the US-Iran talks failing to yield an agreement, the market faces continued near-term adjustment risks.
On the price chart, gold opened the week at $4,667.68 per ounce. It initially fell to a weekly low of $4,600.66, pressured by strong US non-farm payrolls data for March and rising oil prices due to escalating Middle East tensions. However, gold rebounded strongly, reaching a weekly high of $4,856.53 by Wednesday. This surge was driven by increased vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reaching its highest level since early March, supportive physical buying, the People's Bank of China's 17th consecutive month of gold reserve accumulation, and Iran's agreement to a proposed two-week ceasefire, which caused a sharp pullback in oil prices.
Subsequently, the fragile ceasefire collapsed as Iran and Israel resumed hostilities. Iranian media reported the Strait of Hormuz was fully closed again. Additionally, the Fed meeting minutes revealed more officials mentioning potential rate hikes, and US-Iran tensions escalated anew. These factors caused gold to relinquish its gains, pulling back towards the $4,700 level.
Nevertheless, hopes were rekindled by Israel seeking talks with Lebanon and the fragile truce in the Gulf region, which dampened crude oil bullishness and inflation expectations. US CPI for March met expectations, easing inflation pressures. Furthermore, the countdown began for key US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. These factors helped gold stabilize in choppy trade towards the week's end. It ultimately closed at $4,751.00, maintaining bullish momentum. The weekly trading range was $255.87, with a gain of $83.32, or 1.78%.
Outlook for Monday, April 13: International gold opened lower at $4,714.77 per ounce (prices may vary by platform due to different opening times) and trended downwards. This was due to the failed US-Iran talks over the weekend and former President Trump's threat to blockade Iranian maritime traffic. International crude oil gapped significantly higher, jumping 9.4% at the open, and the US Dollar Index also opened higher, dampening expectations for Fed rate cuts and putting pressure on gold. In the short term, gold prices face renewed downward pressure and risk further corrective moves.
The market anticipates a second round of US-Iran talks shortly. If the outcome is optimistic as expected, it could limit gold's decline and prompt a rebound. Conversely, if the talks falter again, it would likely push gold prices lower, potentially towards the $4,500 or even $4,300 support levels. However, even in that scenario, I view such a pullback as another buying opportunity.
Fundamentally, despite renewed geopolitical escalation and low near-term probability of Fed rate cuts, the underlying bullish drivers for gold remain intact. While inflation concerns and expectations for tighter policy have eased, and global de-dollarization has paused due to conflict, the overall softer-than-expected US March CPI keeps alive expectations for medium-to-long-term policy easing. Coupled with slowing US economic growth, the long-term trend of a declining US dollar reserve share and动摇ing credit status persists. Room for real interest rates to move lower will gradually open up.
Furthermore, central bank gold buying continues to intensify. China's gold reserves increased by 160,000 ounces at the end of March, with many global central banks continuously adding to their reserves to optimize their structures, forming a solid base of support. With multiple fundamental factors aligning, gold is poised to break free from short-term volatility and initiate a new upward trend.
Even if US-Iran negotiations ultimately collapse, leading to a severe global situation reminiscent of the late 1970s—where an oil crisis triggered a surge in the US CPI, pushing inflation into double digits, and the Fed aggressively hiked rates to a historic 20%—I believe such a scenario is historical and unlikely to repeat. Central banks, including China's, are significant net buyers now, and inflation is currently manageable. Even if a crisis reoccurs in the current economic slowdown environment, historically aggressive rate hikes are improbable. Instead, stagflation risks would likely lead to lower inflation.
Moreover, comparing the periods from 2020 to 2022 and July 2007 to August 2008, when oil prices doubled, gold did not enter a bear market. Following both periods, gold subsequently entered bull markets.
Therefore, from a medium to long-term perspective, short-term geopolitical fluctuations have not damaged gold's core bullish thesis. This includes the reshaping of the geopolitical order, risks associated with uncontrolled US debt, persistent central bank buying, eventual Fed rate cuts, and the scarcity of safe-haven assets. These are classic catalysts for a long-term gold bull market. Historical experience shows that during conflict escalation or energy channel disruptions, investors often turn to gold to hedge uncertainty. Consequently, by year-end, gold prices still have the potential to challenge levels above $6,000, with silver potentially targeting above $150.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold closed March above its ascending trendline, maintaining its bullish outlook. The April opening remains above this trendline. As long as monthly closes hold above this line, the prospect of new highs remains. On the weekly chart, last week's consolidation close failed to break the 10-week MA resistance, with indicators still suggesting bearish momentum. This pattern hints at a potential top and subsequent corrective pullback. This week's lower open extends this pattern. Initial support is seen at the 5-week MA near $4,610, with the 30-week MA near $4,490 offering a potential buying zone. Resistance lies at the midline near $4,700 and the 10-week MA near $4,860.
On the daily chart, gold's gap lower open has pushed it below the 100-day MA, giving bears the near-term advantage. A test of support at the 144-day MA near $4,480, or even a retest of the 200-day MA near $4,290 or lower, is possible. However, these levels also present potential buying opportunities for bullish positions. Resistance at the 30-day and 60-day MAs could be used for short attempts. A break above the 60-day MA resistance would signal strengthening bullish momentum, potentially targeting the $5,100 level.
For specific intraday trading guidance, please refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading levels for reference (specific entry/exit points subject to real-time account notification): Gold: Support at $4,600 or $4,510; Resistance at $4,700 or $4,750. Silver: Support at $71.65 or $69.30; Resistance at $74.30 or $75.55.
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