On January 13th, the gold market staged a robust and substantial rally. The Asian session opened with a gap-up, with prices directly testing the crucial $4600 level. Although prices subsequently underwent an adjustment, we decisively entered a long position manually near $4565. Gold prices then shifted to a pattern of volatile ascent, climbing steadily. Entering the US trading session, bullish momentum erupted fully, decisively breaking through the $4600 barrier and hitting an intraday high of $4629. Our long position was closed for profit at the $4610 level, successfully locking in gains. Ultimately, gold closed at $4597, recording a strong bullish candlestick on the daily chart.
Tuesday, January 13th, finds the market at a delicate juncture: a long-term bullish structure is fiercely contending with short-term correction risks, where any minor development could trigger sharp price swings. The morning session saw a sudden shift in market sentiment, with prices plunging immediately at the open; London gold quickly fell below $4580. This violent volatility, characterized by a sharp drop the day after hitting a new high, clearly indicates that the market has accumulated significant profit-taking pressure following its rapid ascent. The market dynamic is shifting from the previous unilateral strong uptrend to a mode of high-altitude, wide-ranging fluctuations.
However, the core safe-haven logic underpinning the market remains intact. The Trump administration's criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell has been widely interpreted by the market as a serious challenge to the independence of the US central bank, intensifying deep-seated investor concerns about policy stability. Coupled with ongoing tensions in Iran and the lingering aftermath of the Venezuela incident, the fundamental drivers for safe-haven capital flowing into the precious metals market remain robust. Therefore, any current price adjustments should be viewed as the market building momentum for subsequent gains, presenting a strategic opportunity for gold investors to establish long positions at more favorable levels.
From a technical perspective, the pullback in prices during the latter half of the overnight session, although only retreating below $4600, indicates that market sentiment is not extremely one-sided. The presence of a retracement suggests that bulls still have some reservations regarding technical resistance. Intraday, gold may continue its corrective pullback initially, with key support to watch around $4560, the first retracement low from yesterday morning. If the intraday adjustment deepens, attention could then shift to testing the gap-filling level around $4520-$4510. On the upside, the battle around $4600 remains the focus.
In summary, the long-term narrative for gold remains compelling, but the short-term trading environment has become exceptionally treacherous. The market is transitioning from a "buy-and-hold" model based on macro convictions to a "short-term skirmish" model driven by price volatility and sentiment swings. The optimal current strategy is to "keep long-term logic in mind while focusing on range-trading for short-term operations." Specifically, investors should keep the majority of their capital on the sidelines, using only minimal positions to trade within the support zone of $4550-$4560 and the resistance zone of $4600-$4610, employing a strategy of selling high and buying low. Strict stop-losses and quick entry/exit are essential. Preserve primary energy and capital, waiting for the market to complete this phase of high volatility and for sentiment to cool, then look for clear stabilization signals at more comfortable support levels (such as $4520-$4500) before initiating medium-term long positions. Maintaining calm and patience amidst the fervor is key to surviving and ultimately profiting in the current market.
Therefore, the intraday trading recommendation is as follows: Gold: Go short around $4590-$4592, with a stop-loss at $4601, targeting $4550-$4520-$4500, holding if these levels are breached. If the price reclaims and holds above $4600 again, close shorts on a pullback and go long, targeting $4630-$4650. Alternatively, if the price falls to $4550 but holds, close shorts and go long, anticipating continued high-level consolidation.
Key economic data and events to watch today, Tuesday, January 13, 2026: 19:00 US December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 21:30 US December CPI Year-over-Year (Unadjusted) 21:30 US December CPI Month-over-Month (Seasonally Adjusted) 21:30 US December Core CPI Month-over-Month (Seasonally Adjusted) 21:30 US December Core CPI Year-over-Year (Unadjusted) 23:00 US October New Home Sales (Annualized) 23:00 Speech by Fed's Musalim
Comments