This year's Spring Festival gatherings saw many consumers scanning QR codes at the dinner table. The holiday period, a peak season for alcohol consumption—especially for baijiu—coincided with the longest Spring Festival break in history, creating more opportunities for liquor sales.
Securities analyst Zhang Weijing indicated that institutional surveys suggest overall baijiu sales during the Spring Festival are expected to decline by double digits year-on-year, though the decline has narrowed significantly compared to the second half of last year. "The industry is showing signs of bottoming out," he noted.
Leading brands, however, delivered performance exceeding expectations. Based on field visits and brokerage surveys, top-tier baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to dominate core consumption scenarios such as family reunions and festive banquets.
Brokerage surveys widely reported that Moutai's sales during the Spring Festival showed significant improvement compared to the previous year. Many brokerages estimated growth exceeding 10%, with some even projecting a year-on-year increase of up to 20%.
On February 25, the baijiu sector experienced volatile gains. By 13:00, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. had risen over 2.6%, with Jiuguijiu, Shedjiujiu, and Luzhou Laojiao also among the top gainers.
Field observations and brokerage surveys indicated that baijiu consumption during the holiday was characterized by strong performance at both the high and low ends, while the mid-range segment remained sluggish. Premium baijiu products performed relatively well, and mass-market options, especially those priced around 100 yuan, benefited from holiday demand and promotional efforts. However, the sub-premium segment continued to face challenges.
Contrary to pre-holiday speculation about reduced alcohol advertising during the Spring Festival Gala, baijiu brands maintained strong marketing investments. Eight alcohol brands appeared during the gala, just one fewer than the previous year, with marketing efforts remaining robust.
Wuliangye participated as the exclusive interactive partner for the fourth consecutive year, securing multiple host mentions and brand integrations. Gujing Gongjiu, an 11-year partner, also featured prominently. Yanghe’s Dream Blue M6+ sponsored the eight o'clock and midnight countdowns for the seventh year, while Langjiu's Honghualang and Jinpai's Maopu Caobenjiu also received exposure.
Moutai did not feature its products directly but integrated its "i Moutai" cartoon mascot "Xiao Mao" into a skit. Other brands, such as Xifengjiu and Fenjiu, also secured advertising slots during prime time.
Beyond the gala, alcohol brands sponsored various央视 programs and local television events, maintaining high visibility throughout the holiday.
To drive sales, major baijiu brands launched promotional activities as early as December. Consumer incentives, such as scan-to-win红包 campaigns, were widely used to encourage purchases and gather consumer data.
Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Langjiu were among those running promotions, with prizes ranging from cash rewards to limited-edition gifts. These efforts contributed to improved sales velocity, particularly in key markets like Sichuan and Chongqing.
Moutai did not offer direct cash-back promotions but saw a notable increase in consumption rates, attributed to price adjustments through its "i Moutai" platform, which helped address authenticity and pricing concerns.
Mass-market baijiu products priced under 300 yuan performed steadily, supported by favorable holiday conditions. Local brands and well-known光瓶酒 also received increased promotional support.
In contrast, sub-premium baijiu brands faced continued pressure, with sales declining further. Non-top-tier酱酒 brands, in particular, struggled amid price competition and reduced distributor support.
Despite ongoing challenges, improved performance from leading brands and years of sectoral adjustments have led some brokerages to anticipate stabilization in the baijiu industry this year.
International institutions have also turned cautiously optimistic. Citigroup noted that stabilized Moutai prices could alleviate pressure on mid-to-high-end baijiu, supporting valuation recovery. Goldman Sachs suggested a potential rebound in 2026, with a sequential recovery likely in the second half of this year.
"Although sales remain under pressure, consumer resilience is evident. The industry is showing signs of bottoming out, which may persist but is unlikely to worsen," Zhang Weijing concluded.
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