U.S.-Iran negotiations have stalled. While no major actions appear to have occurred on the surface, undercurrents are swirling, and capital markets are on high alert. Markets in both regions declined today, with the Hong Kong market gapping down 0.95% and the Hang Seng Index falling below the 26,000-point mark. On April 22 Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview with Fox News that there is "no timeline" for ending the conflict with Iran and no need to rush. Although Trump claims there's no hurry, he is deeply concerned internally. Otherwise, he would not have broached the topic of potential talks in May. After all, how could he enter negotiations empty-handed? The foundation for talks has eroded. Iran's Parliament Speaker and Chief Negotiator Kalibaf said on the evening of the 22nd local time that a comprehensive ceasefire would only be meaningful if the maritime blockade is lifted and "global economic coercion" ceases. The U.S. demand, expressed by White House Press Secretary Levitt, is that Iran must agree to transfer its enriched uranium to the U.S. as part of war-ending negotiations. A recent report from Israeli media suggested Trump set April 26 as a deadline, after which Israel would be permitted to take "decisive military action" against Iran. Recent practice shows that as long as conflict doesn't erupt, capital markets remain relatively stable. However, a key precondition is that the Strait of Hormuz must not be completely blocked. A new development emerged on the 22nd local time, as Iranian sources reported that three vessels were intercepted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters. This indicates a renewed tightening of the global economic chokepoint. Consequently, oil prices surged again; on the morning of April 23, WTI crude oil gains expanded to 4%, while Brent crude rose to $106.15 per barrel. Flexible players like Shandong Molong (00568) rose over 10%, China Oilfield Services (02883) gained nearly 7%, PetroChina (00857) increased over 4%, and CNOOC (00883) advanced nearly 3%. Rising oil prices provide fresh stimulus for alternative energy, making coal prices firmer. Stocks like Power Glory (01277), Yancoal Australia (03668), and Yankuang Energy (01171) all rose over 5%. The recent fervor around "optical" modules peaked yesterday. A telling sign was the widespread circulation in chat groups of a screenshot showing a consumer industry analyst switching careers to "believe in the light." Such extreme sentiment often signals a turning point, leading to adjustments in optical module stocks today. Nevertheless, the AI sector remains hot, as solid earnings are the ultimate driver. South Korean memory giant SK Hynix reported its best quarterly results: revenue of 52.57 trillion won, up 198.1% year-on-year, net profit of 40 trillion won, and an operating profit margin of 72%. This margin significantly exceeds NVIDIA's 65% in Q4 last year and TSMC's 58.1% in Q1 this year. Additionally, global analog chip leader Texas Instruments delivered impressive earnings: Q1 revenue grew 19% to $4.83 billion, beating the average analyst estimate of $4.52 billion; operating profit was $1.808 billion, up 37%; net profit reached $1.545 billion, a 31% increase, with Q2 guidance also strongly surpassing expectations. These results reflect the high industry景气度 driven by robust AI investment demand. Related concept stocks like Novosense (02676), Montage Tech (06809), and GigaDevice (03986) all performed strongly. Today, Citi issued a research report endorsing Kinergy (01888), predicting frequent average selling price hikes this year. The bank estimates the average copper foil price will rise about 68% year-on-year to 196 yuan per sheet from 116 yuan last year. It raised Kinergy's earnings forecasts for fiscal 2026-2028 by 18%, 23%, and 16% respectively, lifting the target price to HK$43. Following the report, significant capital inflow pushed the stock up over 10% to HK$34.14, still below the target. The endgame for AI is electricity, and North America faces severe power shortages, keeping power generation equipment stocks hot. North American gas turbine leader GEV's latest quarterly results comprehensively beat expectations. The company secured $18.3 billion in new orders for Q1 2026, up 71% year-on-year, achieved revenue of $9.3 billion, a 7% increase, and reported an adjusted net profit of $900 million, doubling year-on-year. It expects its order backlog to reach 110 GW by end-2026. With GEV's annual delivery capacity under 20 GW, the current backlog represents 5-6 years of work. Despite high orders, expansion willingness is low, including for other giants like Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Germany's Siemens. These three firms maintain conservative strategies, benefiting from scarcity and enabling continuous price hikes. Consequently, buyers who cannot wait or afford premium prices turn to other countries, such as China, creating significant opportunities for domestic gas turbine makers. Advantages include lower prices, rapid capacity expansion, and faster delivery times. Key Hong Kong stocks like Weichai Power (02338) rose over 6%, and Dongfang Electric (01072) gained over 3%. Longpan Technology (02465), highlighted in yesterday's sector focus, pre-announced a major Q1 earnings breakthrough: revenue of 3.3–3.6 billion yuan, up 107–126% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 200–250 million yuan, successfully turning a profit. Its lithium iron phosphate cathode materials are gaining traction, with resource security ensured: an April 20 announcement revealed a A$14.85 million acquisition of lithium exploration leases in Australia's Pilbara region, with ore resources of 18 million tonnes. Subsequent investment exceeding $200 million will build a lithium mine-carbonate-lithium iron phosphate industry chain. The stock rose nearly 8% today. Previously mentioned PATEO (02889) continued its strong performance, driven by two catalysts: a technical collaboration with Horizon Robotics and financial backing—on April 14, 2026, Ping An Capital issued a strategic M&A support letter, planning to provide $1 billion over five years for industrial mergers and acquisitions. With both funding and technology, prospects are positive, and the stock rose nearly 8% again today. Consumer newcomer Auntie Shanghai (02589) has been repeatedly highlighted recently. Catalysts for its multi-day rise include management and shareholders voluntarily extending lock-up periods, benefits from the food delivery battle boosting bubble tea sales, the upcoming Labour Day holiday, and national consumption stimulus policies. The current rally reflects strong market expectations for the company's development, such as store network expansion in 2026, supply chain optimization, product innovation, and the introduction of morning coffee items like Slow-brew Latte and Orange C Apricot Luck Americano. The stock rose over 12% again today. Another bottoming consumer stock, Butong Group (06090), is also strengthening. Its BeBeBus brand focuses on serving mid-to-high-end consumers, holding a strong position in the premium parenting products market. It plans to implement AI in scenarios, products, and industrialization, enhancing core products (strollers, car seats, cribs, and high chairs) with AI upgrades. A new factory in Ningbo Fenghua will commence operations in H2 2026, building a fully digitalized, intelligent demonstration facility to support AI product upgrades. The stock surged over 16% today. On April 28, 2026, Chinese aerospace will reach a milestone—the Long March 10B rocket will make its maiden flight from Wenchang Space Launch Site. A key highlight is the first-time use of the "Pathfinder" sea-based recovery platform for rocket first-stage recovery. Successful reusability could slash costs by over 90%, potentially igniting trillion-yuan markets in satellite internet, space tourism, and space breeding. CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (00317), the builder of the "Pathfinder" platform and a core participant in the recovery mission, stands to benefit clearly from this event. The company expects Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders of 360–430 million yuan, up 95.16% to 133.11% year-on-year.
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