China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that the outline for the 15th Five-Year Plan proposes that by 2030, China's cumulative grid-connected capacity of offshore wind power should reach 100 million kilowatts (corresponding to 53 GW of new installations during the 15th Five-Year Plan period). Representatives from over 1,000 global wind energy enterprises jointly issued the "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0," calling for average annual new installations of no less than 15 GW during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The chief economist of China Energy Engineering Group Investment further predicted that average annual new installed capacity during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to exceed 20 GW. The development of offshore wind power in deep-sea areas is anticipated to drive upgrades in submarine cables towards longer distances, higher voltages, and flexible direct current transmission. This will raise industry barriers and further highlight the advantages of leading companies in technology, delivery, and reliability. It is recommended to focus on leading submarine cable manufacturers. The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:
Offshore wind power is becoming the core engine of emerging marine industries. In 2024, China's offshore wind power generation reached 105.74 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, accounting for over 10% of total wind power generation. Deep-sea wind power achieved standardized and orderly expansion. By the end of 2024, China's cumulative grid-connected offshore wind capacity reached 41.27 GW, accounting for 7.9% of the country's total cumulative wind power capacity and approximately half of the global offshore wind installed capacity. According to a CCTV report, it is forecast that by 2030, China's total offshore wind installed capacity will reach 200 million kilowatts. Offshore wind power generation will account for about 10% of the electricity consumption in eastern coastal regions, with total investment scale reaching 2.6 trillion yuan. This is expected to drive a total industrial chain output value of over 20 trillion yuan, injecting strong momentum into accelerating the low-carbon transition of the energy structure and achieving the "dual carbon" goals.
The phase-out of subsidies spurred an "approval rush" and "installation rush," intensifying maritime space conflicts in nearshore areas. China's offshore wind power industry started relatively late. Between 2014 and 2021, the central government provided subsidies for offshore wind projects, effectively promoting the maturation of the industrial chain. However, in the later stages of the adjustment and phase-out of national subsidies, an "approval rush" and "installation rush" emerged within the industry as players competed for subsidies. This led to prominent conflicts over maritime space usage with sectors like shipping lanes and fisheries. Following the "installation rush," all parties strengthened maritime regulation, and the industry entered a dormant period. It was not until the end of 2024, with the release of the "Single 30" policy, that the future development direction of the industry was clarified.
China possesses abundant offshore wind resources, with vast development potential in "deep-sea" areas. Based on analysis data from the China Meteorological Administration and the World Bank, China's technical development potential for offshore wind energy resources is approximately 3,000 GW (with deep-sea resources being 3 to 4 times those of nearshore areas). The current development rate is less than 2%, highlighting significant long-term growth potential. To address the challenges of maritime space conflicts in nearshore areas and promote industry development towards deep-sea regions, the Ministry of Natural Resources officially released the "Single 30" policy at the end of 2024. This policy requires that projects be located in sea areas more than 30 kilometers offshore or in waters deeper than 30 meters. This shift demands that the industry optimize its layout through technological breakthroughs and large-scale development, ultimately achieving a high-quality transition from "resource competition" in nearshore areas to "efficiency enhancement" in deep-sea areas. The National Energy Administration has initiated the preparation of the renewable energy development plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan period and is researching policy measures to actively promote the development of emerging industries like deep-sea offshore wind power.
Risk warnings include macroeconomic fluctuation risk, downstream investment policy risk, changes in competitive landscape risk, upstream price volatility risk, and force majeure risk.
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