Corn: Neutral This week, domestic futures and spot prices have both broken through the 2,300 level. However, in the absence of a clear fundamental bias towards tightness, the price increase is attributed to a temporal mismatch caused by rigid pre-holiday stocking demand and a spatial mismatch due to inter-regional transfers. Correspondingly, a clear price peak is evident. With the strong momentum of China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) auctions continuing and the rigid pre-holiday stocking demand still present, the corn main contract is expected to briefly consolidate upwards before returning to a sideways trading range. Corn arrivals are concentrated this week, with Guangdong port expecting a total of 534,000 tonnes. On the 23rd, Sinograin auctions across various locations sold 144,000 tonnes of corn, with 132,000 tonnes traded, achieving a transaction rate of 91%. The current high price acceptance level from downstream users suggests the corn main contract may still have some limited room for further upside. View Summary: For the Corn 03 main contract, observe support near 2,250. Given that domestic futures and spot prices have both broken above 2,300, resistance above is maintained at 2,330.
Soybean Meal: Neutral Cold weather in the United States has raised concerns about winter wheat yield damage and processing plant shutdowns, while South American weather has introduced a phase of risk premium, leading to an overnight rebound in CBOT soybeans. Forecasts indicate favorable rainfall conditions across most of Brazil for the coming week, which is beneficial for soybean growth; however, persistent precipitation may potentially delay harvesting operations. Most areas in Argentina's producing regions are still expected to receive only scattered showers, warranting attention to the possibility of developing drought conditions. The rebound in U.S. futures provides marginal cost-side support for soybean meal prices. Concurrently, concerns over potential temporary tightness in future domestic soybean supplies and uncertainty regarding the pace of reserve releases also offer some support. On the other hand, currently attractive crush margins for distant Brazilian shipments suggest that if pressure from South American arrivals materializes, crush profits could still be squeezed out through lower soybean meal prices. View Summary: In the short term, monitor potential disruptions to U.S. markets from changes in South American precipitation forecasts. The Soybean Meal 05 contract is expected to trade within a range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton today.
Eggs: Neutral to Bearish Spot prices in main producing areas remained stable. The average spot price in Guantao, Hebei was approximately 3.51 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. After a period of sustained strength, spot prices are showing signs of stalling. The total number of chicks placed in 2025 is expected to decrease by approximately 42.2 million compared to 2024, but will still remain at a relatively high level of about 1.015 billion. This high level of placements may significantly slow the pace of industry capacity reduction, potentially prolonging the time required for a sustained rise in the central spot price level. In the short-term trading perspective, pre-holiday stocking demand supports a temporary rebound, but caution is warranted for a post-holiday correction risk amidst high volatility. For medium to long-term positioning, anchor the mid-term logic of declining inventories; once the capacity reduction trend is established, focus on opportunities to establish positions in far-month contracts at lower levels. Pay attention to structural differences around the Spring Festival; the steepened Contango structure before the holiday could potentially be invalidated, with a possible reversal after the holiday. Trading Strategy: Stagnant spot prices negatively impact near-month contract performance. The potential return of hedging pressure may significantly affect the extent of the premium in far-month contracts.
Live Hogs: Neutral Yesterday, the average price for live hogs in main producing regions was approximately 13.05 yuan/kg. Profits for both self-sufficient breeding and purchasing piglets for fattening have approached the break-even point, indicating a significant easing of industry losses. The return to positive breeding profits and rising piglet prices signal short-term market improvement. Supply pressure for live hogs is expected to persist into the first half of 2026, with a trend-based recovery likely waiting until the effects of capacity reduction become clearer in the second half of the year. However, improved sentiment among breeders due to the current market recovery may hinder the path of capacity reduction, potentially capping the upside for spot prices. Trading Strategy: In the short term, focus on the risk of a spot price correction. For the medium term, consider opportunities for long positions after the premium in far-month contracts narrows.
Risk Warning: This analysis was prepared by the analyst team of the Futures Company's Research and Development Department. The information herein is sourced from publicly available materials. CSC Futures strives for accuracy and reliability but makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information. Trading based on this information is undertaken at one's own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and has not considered individual clients' specific trading objectives, financial situations, or needs. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this analysis are suitable for their particular circumstances.
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