One year ago today, President Trump stood in the White House Rose Garden and announced new tariffs on approximately 90 countries, declaring the date "Liberation Day." The President also made a long list of promises regarding the US economy, claiming it would embark on an unstoppable upward trajectory. "In my opinion, this is one of the most important days in American history," Trump stated. However, the economic impact over the subsequent 12 months has been far from simple or smooth—partly because the Supreme Court ruled the broad tariffs announced that day unconstitutional, and also because the tariffs themselves produced a mixed bag of benefits and drawbacks.
Many of the metrics Trump boasted about in his speech, from employment and the trade deficit to the rising national debt, have either shown little change or moved in the exact opposite direction he promised on that April afternoon. As summarized by the Tax Foundation in a one-year analysis, Trump's tariff plan also "increased prices and dampened economic activity." "The available evidence does not support the administration's core assertions about how the tariffs should benefit the US economy," researchers wrote. One of Trump's many promises last year was that new production capacity spurred by tariffs would lead to lower prices for consumers. The opposite has occurred, with high prices and inflation, driven by multiple factors, remaining a core concern for Americans. Here is the status of other specific promises.
**Employment Report Card: Mixed Results** Many of Trump's expansive promises in April last year centered on jobs. "Jobs and factories will come pouring back into our country," he said. "We will powerfully boost our domestic industrial base." Yet, the labor market performance over the past year has been mediocre, with declines in some key sectors. Overall US employment data shows that in April 2025, total non-farm employment stood at 158.48 million. While the figures fluctuated in subsequent months, the latest reading for February 2026 showed only a slight decrease of approximately 19,000 jobs, to 158.46 million. New data for March will be released later this week. Job losses in manufacturing have been particularly notable. Trump often complained about manufacturing job losses during the latter half of the Biden administration, but his own term has now seen employment declines in this sector. Data from the US Department of Labor indicates that manufacturing employment in February 2026 was about 89,000 jobs lower than in April 2025. For 12 out of the 13 months of Trump's second term, the US has experienced manufacturing job losses. Manufacturing construction spending, a measure of factory building scale, has also continued to decline. Democrats and groups aligned with the Democratic party used the one-year mark this week to highlight the ongoing contraction in manufacturing data. The left-leaning Center for American Progress argued that cost increases and supply chain disruptions from the Iran war are compounding pressures on an industry already "reeling from the Trump administration's trade and economic policies."
**Modest Growth, Unchanged Trade Deficit, and Growing National Debt** Although Trump emphasized the importance of the trade deficit in the title of the executive order issued that day, the US trade deficit now is roughly similar to its level on April 2, 2025. The trade deficit was highly volatile during Trump's second term, spiking initially as importers stockpiled goods. However, data shows the deficit was $60.1 billion in April 2025 and $54.5 billion in January 2026. New data for February will be released on Thursday. The National Taxpayers Union, a long-time advocate for smaller government, pointed out that the picture looks worse when considering only the goods trade deficit. Using this metric, they found that "the US goods trade deficit hit a record high in 2025." Trump also promised that tariffs would bring explosive economic growth and vowed that the US would "quickly pay off the national debt, all of it happening very quickly." To date, there is little sign of either promise being fulfilled. Daily statistics from the US Treasury Department show that the total federal debt was approximately $36.2 trillion on April 2, 2025, and has now surpassed $39 trillion. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a federal budget watchdog, called the debt exceeding $39 trillion an "embarrassing milestone." Meanwhile, tariffs have had a minimal impact on the nation's fiscal position—tariff revenue fell by $1 billion in April, continuing a multi-month decline, while the US prepares to initiate a tariff rebate program that could cost the treasury an additional $166 billion. The supercharged economic growth Trump promised has also failed to materialize. US economic growth slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, with both consumer spending and business investment revised downward. The annualized GDP growth rate at the end of 2025 was just 0.7%, compared to 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the last full quarter of the Biden administration.
**Trump's Core Tariff Policy Remains Intact** Despite the unfulfilled economic promises of the tariffs, the core tariff commitment he insisted upon in his April 2nd speech remains notable, such as the 10% baseline tariff. Trump delivered on this promise even after the Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that the comprehensive tariffs he imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal. He immediately pivoted that day, announcing new 10% tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Trump has already promised and imposed new tariffs on certain goods like automobiles, but two major industries have avoided hefty new tariffs: pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Although pharmaceutical and chip manufacturers have faced repeated threats from the White House, the plans announced so far come with extensive exemptions—for example, all goods can be exempted if companies build factories in the US. These exemptions have currently allowed most companies to avoid the high new tariffs. Data from the Tax Foundation indicates that such exemptions have resulted in an overall effective tariff rate on all goods currently slightly below 10%. But businesses are hardly at ease: tariff rates have been adjusted more than 50 times during Trump's second term.
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