AIA Shares Climb Nearly 4% in Morning Trading as Goldman Sachs Keeps Buy Rating

AIA (01299) shares rose nearly 4% in morning trading. As of press time, the stock was up 3.77% at HK$74.35, with turnover of HK$1.058 billion.

AIA released its third-quarter operating data, with new business value of US$1.415 billion, down 5% at constant exchange rates, mainly reflecting declines in Hong Kong and mainland China operations, but partially offset by 18% new business value growth in other reporting segments. The group's new business value rebounded strongly in September, growing more than 25% year-on-year. The group expects strong momentum in the fourth quarter, benefiting from a return to a normal comparison base.

Goldman Sachs published a research report maintaining a Buy rating on AIA (01299). The bank believes that AIA's third-quarter value of new business (VONB) decline had been fully anticipated and was broadly in line with its own and market consensus (based on company aggregated data) forecasts. Goldman Sachs expects AIA to regain double-digit new business value growth momentum in the fourth quarter of the 2026 fiscal year.

Goldman Sachs noted several areas in the third quarter that could positively surprise investors: first, Hong Kong market performance exceeded expectations, with new business value declining 3% year-on-year, better than the bank's previous forecast of a 6% decline; second, the Thailand market achieved positive growth despite challenges from base effects; third, strong growth at the end of the quarter, with September new business value growing more than 25% year-on-year, of which Hong Kong market grew 20% combined in August and September.

The bank stated that AIA's third-quarter results fell short of expectations, mainly dragged down by the mainland China market, where new business value declined 33% year-on-year, compared to Goldman Sachs' previous forecast of an 8% decline. The base effects from product repricing in July and August 2025, as well as disruptions to the bancassurance channel business in 2026, had a greater impact than expected. However, the proportion of protection-type product sales through the agency channel increased significantly, and new business value through this channel resumed strong growth in September.