Apple futures showed a mild upward drift in Tuesday's trading session, with the main contract for October delivery closing at 7,462 yuan per ton, up 90 yuan or 1.22% from the previous day.
In the physical market, first-grade 80# late Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong were quoted at 3.25 yuan per jin, unchanged from the prior session, with the spot basis for the AP10 contract at -962, narrowing by 90 points. Meanwhile, in Luochuan, Shaanxi, semi-commodity grade 70# and above late Fuji apples were priced at 3.40 yuan per jin, also flat, with the basis at -662, likewise narrowing by 90 points.
Market participants noted that trading for early-season apples in Shandong remains subdued, with prices trending softer. In the western regions, quality Gala apples are in limited supply, with most activity centered on fulfilling previously placed orders. Early Fuji apples in Baishui and Tongchuan are still undergoing color transformation, with sparse ordering activity at 4.0 to 4.2 yuan per jin. For stored apples, merchants in northern Shaanxi are eager to clear their inventories, though transaction volumes remain weak. Shandong overall is seeing slower distribution, with reduced e-commerce and export procurement, while quality stock in cold storage is limited and some merchants are reserving goods for their own distribution channels.
In Luochuan, good-quality Gala apples of 70# and above were quoted at 3.8 to 4.2 yuan per jin, while bulk lots with minor hail damage ranged from 3.2 to 3.6 yuan per jin, priced according to quality. At the Biguo market in Zhaoyuan, paper-bag Gala apples of 65# and above were mainly traded at 2.0 yuan per jin, with premium lots at 2.4 to 2.5 yuan. Film-bag Gala apples of 65# and above ranged from 0.8 to 1.0 yuan per jin, and Meiba apples were quoted at 2.7 to 2.8 yuan per jin. Semi-commodity apples of 70# and above from merchant inventories in Luochuan were priced at 3.0 to 3.8 yuan per jin, while 80# first-and-second-grade red apples in Qixia ranged from 2.5 to 3.6 yuan per jin, and grower bulk lots of 80# apples were at 1.5 to 2.0 yuan per jin.
The main apple contract fluctuated higher during the session, with open interest declining and the market closing with modest gains. Trading in stored apples remained lackluster, as northern Shaanxi merchants pushed to clear inventories but encountered weak demand. Shandong distribution slowed, with reduced e-commerce and export orders, and limited availability of quality stock. New-season early apples saw subdued activity, with Shandong varieties trading weaker. Western Gala supplies are scarce, mainly fulfilling earlier orders, while early Fuji apples in Baishui and Tongchuan are in the coloring phase with only sporadic ordering. Terminal consumption remains persistently soft, and inventory destocking is proceeding slowly. The market is expected to stay rangebound at low levels in the near term, with close attention on early Fuji price movements.
The strategy remains neutral. Key risks include concentrated inventory clearance pressure in the tail-end storage period, intensified price divergence from concentrated early-apple market arrivals, weak terminal consumption support, and weather disruptions during the growth period in late-season production areas.
Jujube futures held a weaker tone in Tuesday's session, with the main January contract closing at 8,055 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan or 0.06%. Spot prices for first-grade gray jujubes in Hebei stood at 7.20 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20 yuan from the previous day, with the spot basis for the CJ01 contract at -855, narrowing by 205 points.
Recent market updates indicate regional divergence in fruit set for the new-season jujube crop. As the fruit enters its rapid growth phase, its resilience against risk has improved markedly compared to the young fruit stage, and the risk of fruit drop is relatively manageable. Over the next month, during the sugar-accumulation period, rainfall in production areas warrants attention as it could pose quality risks. Dynamic monitoring of weather variables and late-season fruit set conditions is advised. On August 26, the Cuierzhuang market in Hebei received over ten truckloads of arrivals, but shipments were hindered by weather conditions. The Ruyifang market in Guangdong saw three truckloads arrive, with prices remaining broadly stable, though weather affected buyer activity and transaction volumes were modest.
The main jujube contract traded with a weak bias during the session, with open interest increasing and the market closing slightly lower. The new-season crop is in its rapid growth phase with regional divergence in fruit set, and while the fruit's risk resistance has improved, quality risks from rainfall during the sugar-accumulation period remain a concern. In the consumer regions, Hebei received over ten truckloads with weather impeding distribution, while Guangdong saw three truckloads with stable prices but limited buyer interest and average transactions. Spot prices are at multi-year lows, and the pace of distribution is expected to accelerate marginally. Near-term spot prices are likely to remain stable, with the futures market anticipated to consolidate. Ongoing tracking of production area weather and consumer region distribution momentum is recommended.
The strategy remains neutral. Key risks include quality issues from rainfall during the sugar-accumulation period, price pressure from concentrated arrivals, reduced restocking willingness due to trading losses, and weaker-than-expected recovery in terminal consumption.
Investment consulting business qualification: Securities Regulatory Permit [2011] No. 1289. This report is based on publicly available information deemed reliable, but no guarantee is made regarding its accuracy or completeness. The opinions, conclusions, and forecasts herein reflect views as of the publication date and may change without notice. Investors should exercise independent judgment, as the report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The company and authors accept no liability for any losses arising from use of this report. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is prohibited. For authorized citations, attribution to the research institute is required, and no alterations to the original meaning are permitted. All trademarks used herein are the property of their respective owners. Huatai Futures Co., Ltd. reserves all rights.
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