A senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg has issued a warning this Friday, suggesting that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are following a similar boom-and-bust cycle previously seen with gold ETFs. The analyst notes that the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US) and the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD.US) are structurally very similar, as both essentially package value-storage assets that do not generate cash flow, dividends, or operational earnings. Their price movements are primarily driven by investor sentiment, unlike stocks or bonds which are backed by corporate or government entities.
Historical parallels show that the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) once surpassed the SPY to become the world's largest ETF in 2011, only to enter a prolonged period of stagnation lasting eight years. The analyst pointed out in a post on platform X on July 17, 2026, that IBIT currently manages approximately $60 billion in assets, a figure significantly lower than the $100 billion peak briefly reached by the BlackRock product in October this year.
Data from the Bloomberg platform indicates that the physical supply growth for both gold and Bitcoin is limited, which can trigger rapid surges in demand. However, this growth tends to be cyclical and intermittent, rather than a steady, linear expansion. In terms of price performance, Bitcoin traded around $63,000 this Friday, representing a 30% decline since the start of 2026 and a 50% drop from the all-time high (ATH) set in October this year.
In contrast, spot gold was priced around $4,000 per ounce this Friday, down 7% year-to-date but still up 19% over the past 12 months. Compiled data shows that BlackRock's digital assets business unit saw its total assets under management plummet 40% year-over-year in the second quarter, falling from $80 billion last year to $49 billion currently, reflecting a sharp adjustment following a sentiment-driven retreat.
Despite the overall downward trend for the year, recent capital flow data shows signs of stabilization. In the most recent full trading week, U.S. market Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded their first weekly net inflows since early May, successfully breaking the previous streak of consecutive declines. This shift may indicate that market sentiment is moving from panic selling to a wait-and-see stance. However, whether it can truly escape the long-term stagnation shadow similar to that of gold ETFs will depend on the sustainability of subsequent fund flows.
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