Oil Marks Time But Gold Looks Wobbly

investing.com2021-08-06

Oil Stages A Modest Recovery The corrective rally that started in Asia yesterday extended through to the New York session as physical bargain hunters emerged. Brent crude was 1.30% higher at $71.30 a ...

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Joanne123
2021-08-06
Joanne123
Like pls
- 傑J:
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Both contracts are 10 cents higher in subdued pre-US-data Asian trading.\nI continue to believe that any deeper sell-off in oil, while entirely possible on speculative culling, will be short-lived and followed by equally vigorous rallies. The US Nonfarm Payrolls today could be good for a directional move either way.\nBrent crude has support at $70.00 a barrel, and then its 100-DMA just below at $69.75 a barrel. Failure of the 100-DMA could see another reactionary spike lower, potentially reaching the July 20 low at $67.50 a barrel; however, this is not my base case.\nSimilarly, WTI has support at $68.00 a barrel, followed closely by its 100-DMA at $67.20 a barrel. Again, failure of $67.20 could see a snap reaction lower, targeting the 20th of July low at $65.10 a barrel. I would not expect it to linger long at those lower levels, however.\nGold Looks Fragile\nThe US dollar remained firm, but US yields rose slightly yesterday, pushing gold prices lower once again. Gold fell 0.43% to $1804.00 an ounce, to just below the 100-DMA at $1804.50 an ounce, an ominous technical development. Prices continue to sag in Asia pushing gold 0.23% lower to $1800.00 an ounce.\nGold’s price action remains very poor, with its rapid retreat from multi-day resistance around $1830.00 an ounce, a significant red light. Its inability to withstand even modest US dollar strength or slightly higher US yields is an0other warning sign, signalling the bullish traders appear to be running out of patience. Gold looks increasingly likely to stage another substantial move lower to wash out stale long-positioning.\nFor gold to hold above $1800.00 an ounce, it will need today's NFPs to be very weak. A robust payrolls number will likely see a failure of major support just below at $1790.00 an ounce. That will signal a more significant move lower, targeting $1750.00 an ounce in the days ahead. Hold has nearby resistance at $1805.00, today’s 100-DMA, followed by the 200-DMA at $1820.00 an ounce. 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