Last week, Shanghai introduced new property market policies, launching seven measures covering purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, and property taxes. Investigations at some Shanghai real estate agencies and new home sales centers revealed that after one week, the Shanghai property market has shown clear signs of heating up. Inquiries, site visits, and transaction intentions for both new and second-hand homes have been quietly increasing.
On the first weekend following the announcement of Shanghai's new policies, a new residential project in Xuhui's Changqiao area saw site visits reach two to three times the previous volume. Sunday's appointments alone approached nearly one hundred groups, with 60% being first-time visitors.
The chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng stated that, overall, property market policies in 2026 will focus on two key areas: continuing to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, and accelerating the establishment of a new development model to foster high-quality growth in the sector. The analyst predicted that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market in 2026 will exert efforts on both the supply and demand sides.
On the supply side, the current loan quota for real estate "whitelist" projects has already reached 7 trillion yuan, an increase of 2 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year. The next step involves guiding commercial banks to increase the issuance of development loans to real estate enterprises, restoring the previous improvement trend in domestic loans as a source of real estate funding. This will not only help ensure the delivery of homes but also play a direct role in resolving credit risks for developers.
According to a Galaxy Securities research report, the 2026 government work report emphasized "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market" and outlined key tasks in areas such as inventory, housing provident funds, affordable housing, urban renewal, "quality housing," financing, and new models. As the industry gradually transitions into a phase of high-quality development, sector valuations may experience a broad-based recovery. Leading real estate companies, benefiting from low financing costs and high market share in core regions, are expected to capture overall beta opportunities through valuation repair.
A CICC research report noted that the current real estate cycle adjustment has lasted over four years. Considering recent changes on the supply side and in policy, CICC believes housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai are likely to stabilize this year. The property sector may enter a gradual beta cycle, and investors are advised to consider three investment strategies based on risk preference: 1) Allocate to stable targets with clear beta characteristics; 2) Focus on structural growth in real estate development, targeting companies with strong product capabilities and high-quality inventory, as well as those with deep valuation discounts and significant potential upside; 3) Some private enterprises may return to the "game table," achieving substantial revaluation from oversold valuations.
Real estate-related industrial chain companies include: CHINA OVERSEAS (00688), C&D International Group (01908), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123), Greentown China (03900), Sunac China (01918), Longfor Group (00960), Sino-Ocean Group (03377), Vanke (02202), China Resources Land (01109), CIFI Holdings (00884), among others. Property management companies include: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (01209), Poly Property Services (06049), COLI Property Services (02669), Midea Real Estate (03990), among others. Real estate agencies include: KE Holdings (02423), Country Garden Services (06098).
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