Sublime China Information: International Crude Oil Prices Continue Declining, Refined Oil Retail Price Limits May Face Downward Adjustment

During the current pricing cycle (from 24:00 on September 23, 2025 to 24:00 on October 13, 2025), international crude oil prices have primarily exhibited a downward trend with fluctuating consolidation. Affected by this, the domestic reference crude oil change rate briefly rose within positive territory before entering a downward channel again. After calculations on the ninth working day, the adjustment amplitude stands at a reduction of 80 yuan per ton. With only one working day remaining before the current round of price adjustment window opens, it is expected that there is a high probability of a downward adjustment in domestic refined oil retail price limits at 24:00 on October 13.

Sublime China Information's perspective: This pricing cycle (from 24:00 on September 23, 2025 to 24:00 on October 13, 2025) spans a relatively long period due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays. In the early stage, geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+'s production increase plans falling short of expectations led to crude oil price increases. However, in the later period, geopolitical premiums were given back, and trade tensions caused consecutive declines in crude oil prices. Affected by this, the domestic reference crude oil change rate briefly rose within positive territory before retreating again and deepening within negative territory. According to Sublime China Information's calculations: at the close on October 10, the domestic 9th working day reference crude oil change rate was -1.87%, with an expected reduction of 80 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, and the price adjustment window at 24:00 on October 13. With only one working day remaining before the price adjustment window opens and crude oil markets closed, there is a high probability of a downward adjustment in refined oil retail price limits in this round (October 13).

If this price adjustment achieves a reduction, it will be the eighth reduction in domestic refined oil retail price limits this year, and consumer fuel costs are expected to decrease further.