September 30: In the previous trading session on Tuesday (September 29), international gold prices halted their decline and rebounded to close higher, recovering nearly half of Monday's losses as bearish momentum weakened. This was driven by profit-taking rebound demand, as well as Federal Reserve Williams hinting that there is no rush to raise interest rates. The United States plans to release 40 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to ease fuel price pressures, which significantly pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation pressure expectations and interest rate outlook, allowing gold prices to recover.
Short-term rebound momentum remains, but significant resistance still lies overhead. Progress in US-Iran negotiations has been minimal, with neither side willing to make concessions, so the trend remains primarily oscillatory. In terms of specific price action, gold opened in the Asian session at $4,116.11 per ounce, first recording an intraday low of $4,113.32, then oscillated upward throughout the session, extending into the late US session to record an intraday high of $4,184.95, ultimately settling steadily at $4,182.12. The daily amplitude was $71.63, with a gain of $66.01 or 1.6%.
Looking ahead to today, Wednesday (September 30): International gold opened with slight weakness due to short-term intraday pressure, but as bearish momentum has weakened and overall fundamental bearish factors have diminished, intraday rebound momentum remains. The latter half of the week is biased toward oscillation or recovery. Attention should be paid to this week's closing situation. During the day, focus will be on US September ADP employment figures (in tens of thousands), US August core PCE price index annual rate, US August personal spending monthly rate, US second quarter real GDP annualized quarterly final value, and other significant data. Overall expectations lean bearish for gold prices.
However, based on Thursday and Friday data expectations being bullish for gold, the overall trend for the latter half of the week remains biased toward oscillation, with opportunities on both the long and short sides. Sell on rebounds at highs, buy on dips at lows. Technically, on the weekly chart level, gold prices first declined this week, moving further away from the 30-week and middle band line resistance, with bearish momentum increasing. The Bollinger Bands also tend to extend downward, suggesting further downward momentum in the future. However, currently near the upward trend channel support, there has been some bottoming and recovery. If this week closes with a bottoming recovery, the future outlook favors a scenario similar to the April-August 2025 consolidation adjustment followed by a climb, with reference points around the 4,100 mark or above.
Conversely, if prices decline further, one could also look to the upward trend channel starting from 2024 for another bullish view, with the upward channel support bullish zone focused on $4,100-$3,800. On the daily chart level, gold halted its decline yesterday and rebounded to close higher, recovering part of Monday's losses as bearish momentum weakened. Although still under pressure, short-term trends are biased toward oscillation or recovery. Below, watch the Bollinger Band lower rail or upward trend line support for bullish entry. Above, watch the 60-day or 100-day moving average resistance for short positions.
Below are preliminary long and short reference points for intraday operations. Specific entry and exit points are subject to actual position notifications: Gold: Watch support near $4,160 or $4,140 below; watch resistance near $4,220 or $4,260 above. Silver: Watch support at $61.20 or $60.80 below; watch resistance at $62.45 or $63.20 above.
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