On Thursday, September 24, international gold prices rebounded from their lows after touching the bottom. Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed that fighting inflation remains the top priority, with New York Fed President Williams stating that another rate hike before year-end is reasonable, and markets continued to price in higher rates for longer. Meanwhile, Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Yanbu in response to Saudi airstrikes also pressured gold lower. However, reports that the U.S. and Iran are seeking to restart negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides discussing a phased arrangement, weakened the momentum behind oil price rebounds and softened the inflation outlook, supporting gold's recovery from its lows. Although there is an expectation of a bottoming rebound, prices remain under pressure, with a short-term bias toward further declines and range-bound trading.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,289.44 per ounce, first strengthened to hit an intraday high of $4,302.99, then encountered resistance and pulled back, recording an intraday low of $4,244.21 during the European session. From there, it stabilized and rebounded in a roller-coaster fashion, ultimately closing at $4,273.71, with a daily range of $58.78, down $15.73 or 0.37%.
Looking ahead to today, Friday, September 25: international gold opened with narrow-range movement, extending yesterday's late-session trend and receiving support from the recovery, with intraday rebound demand. However, numerous pressures remain overhead, and the overall approach should still be range-bound trading.
On the fundamental front, although U.S. and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased plan to end the war in New York, including Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade on Iran, neither side is willing to give up its negotiating leverage. The outlook for talks remains unclear. Today, market attention will be on U.S. August durable goods orders, the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September, and the final reading of one-year inflation expectations for September, with market expectations leaning toward being supportive for gold prices. Additionally, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, a 2028 FOMC voter, is scheduled to speak. Although the speech is expected to lean hawkish, given that numerous Fed officials released hawkish remarks during yesterday's U.S. session without pushing gold prices persistently lower, gold may still have rebound demand in the evening session. Intraday trading should focus on range-bound movement with a rebound bias. Operations should prioritize buying on dips, with short-selling as a supplement.
Technically, on the weekly chart, gold remains below the 30-week moving average, and rebound momentum is still limited. Before breaking above the 30-week moving average resistance, the bias remains toward pulling back to the rising trendline support at $4,100 or below $3,900 before turning bullish again. Conversely, if it breaks above the 30-week moving average resistance, it could potentially reach the $4,720 resistance and even the $5,100 level. On the daily chart, gold rebounded from its lows yesterday, and while there is bottoming bullish demand, numerous moving average resistances remain overhead. The price is in the lower Bollinger Band channel and biased toward further downward extension, with secondary indicators also leaning toward bearish signals, suggesting bears hold the advantage. A further pullback cannot be ruled out. Therefore, on rebounds, attention should be paid to overhead moving average pressure, and short positions can still be considered.
The following are preliminary intraday support and resistance levels for reference, with specific entry and exit points subject to real-time notifications:
Gold: downside support near $4,255 or $4,220; upside resistance near $4,295 or $4,320.
Silver: downside support near $63.10 or $62.40; upside resistance near $64.10 or $64.80.
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