OpenAI has completed the world's largest private financing round, while SpaceX's valuation has reached $800 billion without going public... A series of evidence suggests that the core value-creation phase for US companies is shifting to pre-IPO private financing, moving from "public participation" to an "elite wealth circulation." With the number of US-listed companies halved and IPO timelines repeatedly delayed, could going public transition from a growth starting point to the final stage of value realization?
The largest "stock issuance" this year didn’t take place on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq’s big screens. Instead, it was a private placement open to fewer than 50 "invited" investors. OpenAI’s $40 billion private financing round not only dwarfed all IPOs this year but also surpassed the largest IPO in history by over $100 billion. Yet this capital feast had no connection to the vast majority of US retail investors—participants included SoftBank, Blackstone, Coatue, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman himself.
This is not an isolated case but an accelerating trend: the US capital market is evolving from "public participation" to an "elite wealth circulation."
**Fastest Growth Happens Pre-IPO: Private Placement Boom Creates Mega Private Companies** Historically, going public was a critical milestone for tech companies. Firms raised capital through IPOs to scale, while public investors gained early access to growth opportunities. But this model is undergoing a fundamental shift.
A frequently cited yet still underappreciated fact: the number of US-listed companies has halved since the late 1990s. During the dot-com bubble peak, there were over 8,000 listed companies; today, that number stands at roughly half. Meanwhile, the time to IPO has stretched significantly—from a median "age" of 6 years in 2000 to 14 years now.
In other words, by the time a company finally goes public, it has often already completed its steepest growth phase. When retail investors finally get to buy these stocks on the secondary market, growth has typically slowed, business models have matured, and valuations have been repeatedly inflated. The true exponential growth phase has already been "priced in" during private markets.
Companies aren’t delaying IPOs due to lack of funding. On the contrary, private markets are providing unprecedented capital support. With lower disclosure requirements and more controlled ownership structures, more firms are opting for targeted financing and internal transactions to fuel expansion.
Over the past two years, several high-profile companies have achieved staggering valuation leaps in private markets:
- Jeff Bezos-backed humanoid robotics firm Figure AI saw its valuation surge 1,400% in under two years, from $2.6 billion to ~$39 billion. - Data analytics company Databricks, valued at ~$62 billion in its last funding round, is now estimated at $100 billion. - OpenAI’s first private financing round hit $40 billion, setting a record. - SpaceX’s latest employee stock buyback and targeted financing pushed its valuation to $800 billion—double its summer valuation.
Nearly all these revaluations occurred pre-IPO.
**Wealthy Investors Get Early "Invites," Retail Investors Wait Outside** In theory, US regulations impose barriers to private markets. Investors must qualify as "accredited investors" per SEC rules—requiring at least $1 million in net worth (excluding primary residence) or annual income of $200,000 ($300,000 for couples).
But in reality, this is just the first hurdle. The most sought-after deals are often reserved for select institutions, family offices, and long-term partners. Even accredited investors may not secure access.
Wall Street banks like Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs have established private market divisions for such transactions, typically catering to large asset managers or institutional investors. Wealthy individuals usually invest through brokers or family offices.
Those missing out on targeted financing must turn to complex, costly secondary private markets, gaining indirect exposure via SPVs with reduced liquidity and transparency.
Among all cases, SpaceX may be the most symbolic example of this "invite-only" market. The Musk-founded aerospace firm has long resisted an IPO while continuously boosting its valuation through private financing and internal secondary trades. This summer, SpaceX’s valuation hit ~$400 billion in a private share sale, with participation limited to Musk’s long-time backers, early investors, and select institutional capital.
More symbolically, SpaceX’s recent employee stock buyback and targeted financing could push its valuation to $800 billion, potentially making it the most valuable private company in US history.
Even if SpaceX eventually IPOs—rumored for next year—retail investors would only gain access after multiple valuation jumps. The most decisive growth phases would already have been allocated in closed markets.
**Regulatory Concerns: A "Two-Tiered" Market Emerges** This trend has drawn regulatory scrutiny. SEC Chair Paul Atkins noted that decades ago, companies like Intel and Apple went public early, allowing the public to share in their growth. Today, the most explosive growth phases are locked within private markets.
The issue isn’t market accessibility but a structural shift in how returns are distributed.
On the surface, US markets remain highly open—retail investors can freely trade listed stocks. But beneath, the capital market is quietly restructuring.
Going public is no longer the starting point for growth but increasingly the finale of value realization.
In an era where "invite-only" private markets expand, retail investors aren’t formally excluded but are increasingly absent from the most critical growth stages. This two-tiered market structure is becoming an unavoidable new reality for US capital markets.
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