On October 7, on the news front, the strong rebound of the US dollar became the main factor weighing on gold prices. The US dollar index broke through the 102 mark, rising 0.16% during the session, continuing its recent strong trend. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials leaned hawkish, with Kansas City Fed President Schmid explicitly stating that "inflation is frustrating and must be addressed," and emphasizing that short-term interest rates still have room to rise. Expectations of higher rates continue to pressure non-yielding gold.
However, the market is not entirely bearish. Overnight, the Nasdaq continued to set new all-time highs. From a correlation perspective, strength in US equities typically signals a recovery in risk appetite, providing some positive support for gold prices. In Wednesday's Asian session, the Bollinger Bands on the gold 4-hour chart gradually narrowed, further compressing the trading range. The upper band converged with the MA60 moving average at the 4189 level, forming short-term resistance, while the lower band overlapped with the SAR indicator near 4114, providing support. Analysts believe that intraday trading will likely be dominated by range-bound consolidation between 4114 and 4189.
Tuesday's gold low was at the 4103 level. In conventional thinking, the 4115 to 4100 area could be considered for long positions on a rebound, but whether this can lead to a trend reversal still requires further observation. In terms of trading strategy, the short-term approach remains to prioritize selling on rallies, buying on dips within the range. Close attention should be paid to the direction of the US dollar index and subsequent Fed official statements. If the dollar sees profit-taking, gold prices may get a breather. Conversely, if the 4000 mark is breached, the reference strategy for gold, with the current real-time quote at 4134, is as follows: 1. Go long on a pullback to 4115, add to long positions at 4007, stop loss at 3999, targets 4132—4152—4172; 2. Prioritize shorting in the 4158—4166 resistance zone on a rebound, stop loss at 4172, targets 4140—4120.
On the bearish side, supply pressure from the Middle East is easing, with approximately 12 million barrels per day of crude oil shipped out of the Persian Gulf over the past 7 to 10 days, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline throughput reaching 5.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories are expected to increase for a third consecutive week, with forecasts of a 1.7 million barrel increase to 429 million barrels for the week ending October 2. However, the latest API data showed an actual drawdown of 2.09 million barrels, and the data discrepancy has left the market in a wait-and-see mood. On the bullish side, OPEC+ maintained its November production quota unchanged, with Saudi Arabia, Russia and other nations reaffirming their commitment to market stability. More critically, due to Middle East conflicts, the EIA forecasts that global crude oil production will decline from a record high of 106.3 million barrels per day in 2025 to 101.1 million barrels per day in 2026, with expected supply contraction providing bottom support for oil prices.
In Wednesday's Asian session, crude oil prices remained under pressure below the daily Bollinger Band middle track, with the four consecutive weekly declines indicating strong bearish control. However, positive signals have emerged on the technical front: the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes simultaneously showed SAR indicator bottom signals, opening up short-term rebound potential. From a technical perspective, resistance above is focused on the 91.3 level on the 1-hour upper band and the 91.7 level on the 4-hour upper band, forming a pressure zone. If the price breaks through the 91.7 resistance point, this week's weekly candlestick would directly transform into an elongated lower-shadow bullish hammer, subsequently testing the 94 to 95 resistance range. Support below is focused on the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower band at 87.8 and yesterday's low of 86.8. As long as the new low is not breached, a bullish outlook can be maintained.
Overall, after two consecutive bearish sessions earlier in the week, crude oil formed a flat-bottom bullish candle on Wednesday. For today's trading, it is recommended to prioritize long positions on dips, and short on resistance at higher levels. The reference strategy for crude oil, with the current real-time quote at 90.2, is as follows: 1. Short in the 91.3—91.7 resistance zone on a rebound, stop loss at 92.2, targets 90.2—89.1—88.1; 2. Go long on a pullback to 87.8, add to long positions at 86.8, stop loss at 86, targets 90—92—94.5.
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