According to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, eight of the Fed's twelve districts reported slight to modest growth in overall economic activity, three districts reported no change, and one district reported a slight decline. This represents an improvement compared to the previous three reporting periods, when most districts reported essentially no change. Most banks reported that consumer spending saw slight to moderate growth during this period, largely attributed to the holiday shopping season. Geopolitically, the U.S. State Department issued another statement urging U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately. This is the third such warning in five days. Concurrently, the U.S. is withdrawing some personnel from several of its major bases in the Middle East. Iran has warned that it is currently on the highest level of combat readiness and would attack local U.S. military bases if the U.S. strikes Iran.
On 2026-01-14, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 1,028.82 yuan per gram and closed at 1,040.62 yuan per gram, representing a change of +1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The daily trading volume was 41,087 lots, with open interest standing at 129,725 lots. During the previous night session, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 1,041.00 yuan per gram and closed at 1,039.72 yuan per gram, a decrease of 0.09% from the previous afternoon's close.
On 2026-01-14, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 21,431.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 22,763.00 yuan per kilogram, a significant change of +8.37% from the previous trading day's close. The daily trading volume was 1,276,402 lots, with open interest at 344,654 lots. During the previous night session, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 23,488 yuan per kilogram and closed at 23,270 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 2.23% from the previous afternoon's close.
On 2026-01-14, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.126%, a decrease of 4.9 basis points from the previous day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.623%, narrowing by 2.4 basis points from the previous session.
On 2026-01-14, for the Au2602 contract, long positions decreased by 6,569 lots compared to the previous day, while short positions decreased by 297 lots. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 401,839 lots, an increase of 8.37% from the day before. For silver, on the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 4,556 lots, while short positions decreased by 411 lots. The total trading volume for Shanghai silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,724,888 lots, a substantial increase of 14.36% compared to the prior session.
For precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings remained unchanged from the previous day at 1,074.23 tonnes. Silver ETF holdings decreased by 27 tonnes to 16,321 tonnes.
In terms of basis: On 2026-01-14, the domestic premium for gold was -2.57 yuan per gram, while the domestic premium for silver was -880.39 yuan per kilogram. Regarding the gold-silver ratio: the ratio based on the main Shanghai Futures Exchange contracts was approximately 45.72, a decrease of 6.52% from the previous day. The external market gold-silver ratio was 53.40, down 2.14% from the previous trading day.
Fundamentally, monitoring the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market for the previous trading day (2026-01-14) shows that gold trading volume was 66,216 kilograms, an increase of 14.16% from the previous session. Silver trading volume was 812,282 kilograms, up 15.99% from the day before. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, while silver delivery volume was 450 kilograms.
Gold: Cautiously Bullish. Market risk sentiment is currently brewing, which may slightly strengthen investment demand for gold. Consequently, gold prices are expected to remain predominantly strong with fluctuations in the near term. The Au2602 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 1,020 yuan/gram to 1,050 yuan/gram.
Silver: Cautiously Bullish. Silver prices are currently surging alongside gold. However, due to the resurgence in risk appetite, silver prices are showing slightly stronger momentum compared to gold, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue narrowing. Nevertheless, silver prices themselves are also forecast to maintain a pattern of fluctuating with a strong bias. The Ag2604 contract is expected to trade within a range of 22,800 yuan/kilogram to 24,000 yuan/kilogram.
Arbitrage: Sell the gold-silver ratio on rallies. Options: Hold for now.
Overseas liquidity risk. Speculative positions continuing to exit the market.
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