Weekly Polyester Report: Downstream Seasonal Load Reductions, Raw Material Divergence PTA Summary Core View: Neutral PTA supply is undergoing planned maintenance, while demand is seasonally weakening. The balance is gradually entering a phase of seasonal inventory accumulation. Supply-demand momentum is moderate, with processing margins around 300+ yuan. Short-term expectations are not poor; monitor capital flow changes. Spread: Neutral Recent calendar spreads have stabilized. Watch for opportunities to enter long positions in far-month spreads on dips. Spot: Neutral Spot PTA market negotiations are moderate, with little change in the spot basis differential. Offers for late January are around 05-63, with few bids; price discussions are in the range of 5065~5105. Cost: Neutral PX plant operations show little change; PXN has slightly retreated. Expectations are not poor. Plant Changes: Neutral PTA supply changes are minimal, with maintenance proceeding as scheduled. New Materials is undergoing planned maintenance, the Ineos 1.25 million-ton unit is expected to be shut down until late March, Dushan 3# has restarted, Dushan 2# plans a shutdown by month-end, while YS's 3 units and Nengtou are under maintenance. Downstream Demand: Neutral Polyester operating rate is at 88.3%. Some polyester maintenance has been brought forward, and the operating rate is seasonally declining. Assessments for January-February polyester operating rates are 88% and 83% respectively. Operating rates for texturing, weaving, and dyeing have decreased to 70%, 55%, and 70%. Supply-Demand Balance: Cautiously Bearish PTA supply and demand show slight seasonal inventory accumulation in January-February. Processing Margin: Cautiously Bearish The PTA-Brent crude spread has retreated slightly from highs. PXN is at $339, and the PTA processing margin is around 300+ yuan. PX Summary Core View: Neutral PX supply and demand show little change. Near-term imports have rebounded while demand weakens, leading to slight inventory accumulation. Far-month expectations are acceptable. Short-term valuation is not low; monitor capital preferences. Spread: Neutral Supply and demand show little change; spreads are weak. Spot: Neutral PX spot performance is moderate. Floating price performance is expected to be steady but moderate, with estimates for March at -4/-3 and for April around -1.5/-1. Plant Changes: Neutral Domestic operating rate is high at 89.4%. Jinling's rate has increased slightly, ZPC is undergoing planned load reduction, Fujian has subsequent maintenance and capacity expansion plans, while other units show little change. Imports: Cautiously Bearish Asian operating rate is 80.6%. Thailand's PTTG has restarted and increased rates, and Israel's 190k-ton unit has restarted. Downstream Demand: Neutral PTA plant operations show little change. Demand orders are marginally weaker, weaving load is seasonally slightly lower, and the polyester operating rate of 88.3% is seeing ongoing maintenance. Supply-Demand Balance: Neutral Supply and demand are in a loose balance for January-February. PX pressure is expected to be manageable before the first half of 2026, with a favorable outlook. Processing Margin: Neutral PXN has stabilized with a slight retreat, currently near the high of around $340. MEG Summary Core View: Neutral MEG costs have retreated. Import arrival expectations are not low, and polyester load is seasonally decreasing. The near term faces seasonal inventory accumulation. After a short-term pullback, valuation is in a low range; view it as range-bound in the short term. Spread: Neutral Inventory accumulation is gradually materializing; near-term spreads are stable. Spot: Neutral Domestic operating rate is 74%, syngas-based rate is 80%. Fulde, Zhonghua Quanzhou, and one line of Shenghong are under maintenance. ZPC has reduced load, and Sanjiang plans a load reduction in February. Henan Energy's restart is delayed, while Yankuang has restarted. Plant Changes: Neutral Total MEG operating rate is 74%; coal-based rate is 79%. Domestic maintenance volume shows little change. Chengdu Shihua plans a 10-day maintenance in late January. Fulde, Zhonghua Quanzhou, and Shenghong are under maintenance; ZPC has slightly reduced load. The BASF EG project is progressing. Coal-based: Henan Energy Yongcheng is under maintenance for 2 weeks; Yankuang has restarted; Huayi has increased load. Imports: Neutral Overseas maintenance plans are not low, but near-term arrival forecasts are also not low. Taiwan's Nan Ya 2 units are shut down. Saudi Arabia's 3 units are under maintenance. Kuwait's unit is shut for one month of maintenance. One Iranian unit is under maintenance. The US Nan Ya 360k-ton unit is under maintenance. Downstream Demand: Cautiously Bearish Polyester operating rate is 88.3%, gradually decreasing. Operating rates for texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 70%, 55%, and 70%. Orders are seasonally slightly weaker. Supply-Demand Balance: Neutral Supply shows little change. Near-term import arrivals are not low, with expectations improving. Demand is seasonally weakening, facing seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in January-February. Processing Margin: Neutral Oil-based and coal-based routes remain loss-making. Valuation has compressed after the pullback; short-term momentum is low. Polyester Maintenance Gradually Increasing Weaving Orders Moderate Terminal new order performance is moderate. Domestic demand is entering a pre-holiday lull, while foreign demand is reportedly improving. As of January 15, operating rates for texturing, weaving, and dyeing slightly decreased to 70% (-2%), 55% (-1%), and 70% (+1%). A seasonal decline is currently underway. Raw material stocking shows divergence, and recent production-sales performance is moderate. Polyester Seasonal Load Declining, Cash Flow Improving As of January 16, the polyester operating rate is around 88.3%. Polyester cash flow has improved significantly, with average polyester inventory around 12.9 days. Some polyester units underwent early maintenance after mid-January, leading to a slight decrease in the operating rate. With the retreat in raw material costs, polyester cash flow has improved noticeably. Inventory has stabilized with a slight increase, but overall inventory pressure is not high. Polyester Inventory Pressure Not High Current polyester inventory is stable with a slight increase, and pressure is not high. As of January 16, POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber inventories are at 9.4, 24, 15.5, and 9.4 days, respectively. Polyester Cash Flow Has Improved Costs have slightly retreated, leading to a noticeable improvement in polyester cash flow. Cash flows for filament yarn, staple fiber, and chip have all increased. Polyester Operating Rate Assessment Looking at future operating rate assessments: costs have retreated, cash flow has slightly improved, and polyester plants have begun executing maintenance since mid-month. Subsequent operating rates may seasonally decline. As of January 16, the polyester operating rate is 88.3%. Estimates for January-February are 88% and 83% (-1%) respectively. PTA Seasonal Inventory Accumulation Underway PTA Maintenance Volume Not Low PTA plant changes: New Materials is undergoing planned maintenance. The Ineos 1.25 million-ton unit is expected to be shut down until late March. Dushan 3# has restarted, Dushan 2# plans a shutdown by month-end, while YS's 3 units and Nengtou are under maintenance. Planned maintenance volume for January-February is not low. Monitor whether restart plans emerge after processing margins improve. PTA Inventory Slightly Rising According to Zhongpu data, as of January 16, PTA social inventory has stabilized and risen (excluding credit warehouse receipts), reaching 2.045 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons. Inventory at warehouses and ports slightly decreased, while inventory at PTA and polyester plants increased. Current PTA inventory pressure is not high. PTA Balance Sheet PTA supply is undergoing planned maintenance, demand is seasonally weakening, and the balance is gradually entering a phase of seasonal inventory accumulation. Supply-demand momentum is moderate, with processing margins around 300 yuan. Monitor capital flow changes in the short term. On the supply side, PTA plant dynamics: New Materials is undergoing planned maintenance. The Ineos 1.25 million-ton unit is expected to be shut down until late March. Dushan 3# has restarted, Dushan 2# plans a shutdown by month-end, while YS's 3 units and Nengtou are under maintenance. On the demand side, the polyester operating rate fell to 88.3% on Jan 16. The polyester operating rate has gradually declined since mid-month. Downstream demand orders are weakening, though some exports are acceptable. Operating rates for texturing, weaving, and dyeing are stable with slight decreases: 70% (-2%), 55% (-1%), and 70% (+1%). The PTA balance sheet is gradually entering seasonal inventory accumulation. The PTA processing margin is stable, short-term momentum is moderate. Monitor capital flow changes; expectations are acceptable—consider cautious long positions on dips after pullbacks. PTA Net Positions of Selected Seats vs. PTA Price Net long positions held by foreign-controlled futures company seats have stabilized. PXN Compression North American Gasoline Inventory Seasonally Rising US gasoline inventory is rising from the bottom, and the gasoline crack spread is stable. Asian Short-Route Strength Recent PX performance is relatively strong. Asian disproportionation and short-route economics are strong, with disproportionation economics slightly retreating. Aromatics US-Asia Spread Slightly Narrows The US-Asia arbitrage spread has narrowed. The toluene US-Asia spread is $126/ton, and the xylene US-Asia spread is $45/ton; the arbitrage window has compressed. South Korea's aromatics exports to the US increased in December 2025 but decreased in early January 2026. Asian Operating Rate Maintains Relatively High Level PX plant dynamics: Domestic operating rate is 89.4%; Asian operating rate is 80.6%. Domestically, Jinling's rate has increased slightly, ZPC is undergoing planned load reduction, Fujian has subsequent maintenance and capacity expansion plans, while other units show little change. In Asia, Thailand's PTTG has restarted and increased rates, and Israel's 190k-ton unit has restarted. With improved economics, the overall Asian operating rate has increased slightly. PX Balance Sheet Costs have rebounded, and PXN has retreated slightly to around 330+. Domestic near-term plant changes are minimal, demand is slightly weaker, and short-term momentum is moderate. Monitor capital flow changes. PX plant dynamics: Domestic operating rate has slightly decreased to 89.4%; Asian operating rate has decreased to 80.6%. Domestically, Jinling's rate has increased slightly, ZPC is undergoing planned load reduction, Fujian has subsequent maintenance and capacity expansion plans, while other units show little change. In Asia, Thailand's PTTG has restarted and increased rates, and Israel's 190k-ton unit has restarted. Balance-wise, near-term changes are minimal. PX supply and demand are in a loose balance. Valuation around PXN 330+ is slightly weaker, with no clear momentum. PX Domestic-International Spread Stable, Calendar Spread Weak; TA Futures Processing Margin Stable The current PX offshore-onshore spread is stable. The PX Mar-May calendar spread is weak. The TA05 processing margin is around 340. Industry Chain Spread Slightly Contracts Industry chain profits in 2026 have retreated slightly from highs. PXN has compressed, while the PTA processing margin is largely stable. Near-term polyester production cuts are gradually materializing. PXN has retreated from highs. Current overall valuation is neutral. EG Expected Inventory Accumulation MEG Operating Rate High and Stable The overall MEG operating rate is high and stable. As of January 16, the total MEG operating rate is 74%, and the coal-based operating rate is 80%. EG Operating Rate Maintains Relatively High Level MEG plant dynamics: Chengdu Shihua plans a 10-day maintenance in late January. Fulde, Zhonghua Quanzhou, and one line of Shenghong are under maintenance. ZPC has reduced load, and Sanjiang plans a load reduction in February. Henan Energy's restart is delayed, while Yankuang has restarted. EG Performance Moderate MEG economics are moderate. The price center has moved down, and oil-based and coal-based routes remain loss-making. Overseas Maintenance Not Low; Near-Term Arrivals High Overseas plant dynamics: Taiwan's Nan Ya 2 units are shut down. Saudi Arabia's 3 units are under maintenance. Kuwait's unit is shut for one month of maintenance. One Iranian unit is under maintenance. The US Nan Ya 360k-ton unit is under maintenance. Customs import data for December was high at 835k tons. Expectations are for increased arrivals from Iran. Near-term arrivals for January-February remain not low. Port Inventory Stabilizes, Forecasts Rise As of January 19, MEG port inventory in East China's main ports is approximately 795k tons, down 7k tons week-on-week. Overall inventory is neutral to high. In terms of arrivals, for Jan 12-18, expected total arrivals were around 148k tons, with actual arrivals at 126k tons. Actual arrivals were not high, and inventory stabilized. For Jan 19-25, arrivals are forecast at 205k tons, which is high. Port inventory is expected to increase slightly. Polyester plants' MEG raw material inventory days are at 15.2 days (+0.6). Downstream stocking is stable with an increase. MEG Balance Sheet MEG costs have retreated. Import arrival expectations are not low, and polyester load is seasonally decreasing. The near term faces seasonal inventory accumulation. After a short-term pullback, valuation is in a low range; view it as range-bound in the short term. On the supply side, MEG plant dynamics: Domestic operating rate is 74%; syngas-based rate is 80%. Fulde, Zhonghua Quanzhou, and one line of Shenghong are under maintenance. ZPC has reduced load, and Sanjiang plans a load reduction in February. Henan Energy's restart is delayed; Yankuang has restarted. Overseas plant dynamics: Taiwan's Nan Ya 2 units are shut down. Saudi Arabia's 3 units are under maintenance. Kuwait's unit is shut for one month of maintenance. One Iranian unit is under maintenance. The US Nan Ya 360k-ton unit is under maintenance. On the demand side, the polyester operating rate was 88.3% on Jan 16. Polyester maintenance is gradually materializing. Assessments for January-February operating rates are 88% and 83%. Major plants are gradually reducing production towards year-end. Weaving orders are declining, indicating seasonal weakness. Balance-wise, near-term port arrival expectations are high, and seasonal inventory accumulation is underway. Momentum is moderate; expect range-bound trading. Spread Structure PTA Basis, Calendar Spread Stable MEG Basis Slightly Improves, Calendar Spread Stable Far-Month Structure
Comments