Zhongtai Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report indicating that the machinery sector outperformed the broader market in 2025, with equipment sub-sectors showing overall gains despite internal divergence. Domestic demand saw limited recovery momentum amid sluggish infrastructure investment growth, while external demand continued to improve with rising exports and orders. The firm maintains an "overweight" rating on the machinery equipment sector, highlighting promising new technologies including humanoid robots, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, low-speed autonomous systems, and perovskite solar cells. Key cyclical opportunities include construction machinery, oilfield services, and consumer equipment.
For 2026, Zhongtai Securities expects China's economic recovery momentum to continue amid government stabilization measures, with moderate macroeconomic improvement and manufacturing demand growth. The firm analyzed several future industries highlighted in China's 15th Five-Year Plan, including nuclear fusion, embodied AI, and quantum technology.
Investment focus areas: 1) New Technologies: - Humanoid robots: Industry focus shifts from speculation to value validation, with 2026 production scale and application scenarios reshaping investment themes. - Nuclear fusion: Accelerating technological progress with clear long-term commercialization prospects, particularly in tokamak technology. - Quantum technology: Rapid industrialization with China catching up in quantum computing, communication, and precision measurement. - Low-speed autonomous systems: Commercial potential in sanitation and logistics sectors. - Perovskite: Cost-performance breakthroughs expected with GW-scale production lines.
2) Cyclical Opportunities: - Construction machinery: Strong recovery with sustained export growth and domestic stabilization. - Oilfield services: Full natural gas industry chain enters upward cycle with AI-driven power demand growth. - Consumer equipment: Accelerated innovation and export growth with "AI+equipment" penetration.
Risk factors include policy uncertainty, export underperformance, industry sizing deviations, and potential data inaccuracies.
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